Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2021-03-18

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-03-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68903 14599 140 497 172 34 6 0
OW 54 519 59 503 130 13 1 0
VODI 0 273 44 486 508 42 1 0
ODI 0 119 20 188 565 171 6 0
CDI 0 64 20 170 536 525 92 0
VCDI 0 16 9 252 1138 3055 8983 6187
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-03-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68974 14240 114 531 216 13 0 0
OW 54 684 80 404 166 28 1 0
VODI 0 315 38 534 373 59 4 0
ODI 0 141 16 196 495 105 7 0
CDI 0 81 14 164 504 329 37 0
VCDI 0 31 12 284 1080 3297 9343 6136
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-03-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69272 13749 126 608 239 3 0 0
OW 55 536 80 378 215 35 0 0
VODI 0 238 36 504 378 79 0 0
ODI 0 76 9 234 629 148 2 0
CDI 0 43 11 108 654 424 70 0
VCDI 0 8 4 119 914 3479 9897 5740
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-03-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68837 14054 132 517 223 31 0 0
OW 63 503 76 411 210 56 0 0
VODI 0 197 40 458 470 91 1 0
ODI 0 61 10 194 603 260 0 0
CDI 0 28 11 124 803 775 75 0
VCDI 0 3 4 61 752 3624 9290 6052
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68844 14070 128 521 242 35 0 0
OW 56 482 78 369 186 50 0 0
VODI 0 211 42 502 416 95 1 0
ODI 0 60 15 188 668 260 0 0
CDI 0 22 6 136 808 798 77 0
VCDI 0 1 4 49 741 3599 9288 6052

Date: 2021-03-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68427 14624 129 462 183 39 0 0
OW 59 527 96 520 105 6 0 0
VODI 0 274 37 584 416 23 0 0
ODI 0 125 10 253 638 128 0 0
CDI 0 64 18 181 819 905 33 0
VCDI 0 29 7 220 1611 4315 7599 5634
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68432 14625 122 458 193 42 0 0
OW 54 563 101 458 106 3 0 0
VODI 0 258 39 655 335 19 0 0
ODI 0 117 11 261 727 147 0 0
CDI 0 59 17 175 814 862 55 0
VCDI 0 21 7 213 1597 4343 7577 5634

Date: 2021-03-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67926 15054 179 603 202 11 0 0
OW 53 480 67 580 181 7 0 0
VODI 0 209 50 523 666 31 0 0
ODI 0 59 11 226 918 146 0 0
CDI 0 43 3 97 995 956 62 0
VCDI 0 43 6 146 1029 3759 7294 6485
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67926 14758 164 591 288 11 0 0
OW 53 524 72 473 215 17 0 0
VODI 0 306 42 502 538 70 0 0
ODI 0 123 15 198 764 174 1 0
CDI 0 82 13 141 841 675 135 0
VCDI 0 95 10 270 1345 3963 7220 6485

Date: 2021-03-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67865 15145 164 659 231 2 0 0
OW 53 492 67 501 256 8 0 0
VODI 0 263 37 488 618 83 4 0
ODI 0 101 14 258 568 205 11 0
CDI 0 77 12 155 810 547 10 0
VCDI 0 132 12 287 1422 3780 6692 7071
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67865 14785 162 703 323 2 0 0
OW 53 501 56 476 310 23 0 0
VODI 0 344 35 383 626 119 0 0
ODI 0 182 16 221 438 209 15 0
CDI 0 142 12 160 622 434 49 0
VCDI 0 256 25 405 1586 3838 6653 7071

Date: 2021-03-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68095 14905 153 709 250 11 0 0
OW 53 549 57 513 281 12 0 0
VODI 0 326 42 423 517 83 0 0
ODI 0 130 15 231 477 147 11 0
CDI 0 105 10 184 561 526 61 0
VCDI 0 58 17 306 1482 3652 7377 6771
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68094 14409 161 744 357 15 0 0
OW 54 559 42 428 263 39 0 0
VODI 0 417 28 408 502 107 0 0
ODI 0 246 22 163 430 171 5 0
CDI 0 175 17 201 529 565 88 0
VCDI 0 267 24 422 1487 3534 7356 6771


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