Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-03-18

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-03-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68903 14628 140 500 172 34 6 0
OW 54 530 61 507 130 13 1 0
VODI 0 289 45 493 510 42 1 0
ODI 0 128 22 200 569 171 6 0
CDI 0 70 20 177 551 671 182 84
VCDI 0 25 12 299 1385 4600 22952 67865
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-03-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68974 14249 114 540 221 13 0 0
OW 54 694 80 409 171 28 1 0
VODI 0 326 38 536 379 59 25 0
ODI 0 149 18 204 507 132 33 0
CDI 0 88 15 184 541 531 191 4
VCDI 0 40 14 359 1360 5697 31131 58939
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-03-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69272 13749 126 623 252 3 0 0
OW 55 536 80 386 225 35 0 0
VODI 0 238 36 511 387 84 2 0
ODI 0 76 9 241 645 156 24 0
CDI 0 43 11 112 692 473 133 20
VCDI 0 8 4 121 1112 5215 26179 65174
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-03-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68837 14054 134 534 230 31 0 0
OW 63 503 76 417 216 56 0 0
VODI 0 197 40 468 480 91 1 0
ODI 0 61 10 198 619 261 0 0
CDI 0 28 11 126 830 870 91 15
VCDI 0 3 4 61 813 5121 19496 72002
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68844 14070 130 538 249 35 0 0
OW 56 482 78 377 192 50 0 0
VODI 0 211 42 512 428 95 1 0
ODI 0 60 15 191 685 261 0 0
CDI 0 22 6 137 837 891 94 7
VCDI 0 1 4 49 797 5098 19493 72010

Date: 2021-03-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68427 14648 130 462 183 39 0 0
OW 59 541 98 525 105 6 0 0
VODI 0 284 38 597 416 23 0 0
ODI 0 131 13 267 639 128 0 0
CDI 0 64 20 202 833 911 68 35
VCDI 0 29 7 250 1822 5799 15666 73583
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68432 14648 122 458 193 42 0 0
OW 54 579 104 463 106 3 0 0
VODI 0 270 41 668 335 19 0 0
ODI 0 120 15 279 728 147 0 0
CDI 0 59 17 197 831 869 77 21
VCDI 0 21 7 238 1805 5826 15657 73597

Date: 2021-03-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67926 15086 184 604 202 11 0 0
OW 53 489 67 592 181 7 0 0
VODI 0 224 50 535 669 31 0 0
ODI 0 71 12 229 925 146 0 0
CDI 0 60 3 107 1040 1004 72 51
VCDI 0 73 14 226 1315 5150 19453 70186
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67926 14784 164 591 288 11 0 0
OW 53 544 76 474 215 17 0 0
VODI 0 325 44 517 538 70 0 0
ODI 0 135 15 213 767 174 1 0
CDI 0 97 14 149 860 702 153 72
VCDI 0 118 17 349 1664 5375 19371 70165

Date: 2021-03-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67865 15181 168 660 231 2 0 0
OW 53 506 68 511 256 8 0 0
VODI 0 278 39 503 619 83 4 0
ODI 0 110 14 267 576 205 34 0
CDI 0 92 13 162 856 628 88 23
VCDI 0 191 20 370 1794 5125 21772 67673
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67865 14814 162 703 323 2 0 0
OW 53 521 59 477 310 23 0 0
VODI 0 358 39 400 626 119 0 0
ODI 0 192 17 234 441 209 17 1
CDI 0 154 13 173 654 488 70 84
VCDI 0 319 32 486 1978 5210 21811 67611

Date: 2021-03-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68095 14938 158 711 250 11 0 0
OW 53 556 59 527 281 12 0 0
VODI 0 336 43 438 524 83 0 0
ODI 0 140 15 236 491 147 11 0
CDI 0 119 12 188 602 566 61 67
VCDI 0 71 19 376 1744 5135 16401 73572
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68094 14432 162 744 357 15 0 0
OW 54 571 47 433 263 39 0 0
VODI 0 427 29 430 503 107 0 0
ODI 0 254 23 170 444 171 5 0
CDI 0 191 17 205 563 608 138 71
VCDI 0 285 28 494 1762 5014 16330 73568


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