Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2021-03-11

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-03-15

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 153 12 81 25 2 0 0
OW 0 17 2 19 31 6 0 0
VODI 0 2 1 9 57 18 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 43 24 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 26 70 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 310 4130 31848
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 162 14 87 34 5 0 0
OW 0 10 1 20 31 7 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 6 56 21 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 33 26 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 25 67 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 304 4128 31848

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 64 512 2557
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 64 512 2557

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 51 17 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 333 2645 6936
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 92 57 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 290 2605 6936

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 14 25 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 6 45 29 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 206 3009 2304
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 12 42 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 3 20 27 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 7 55 48 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 178 2954 2304

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 16 1999 5218
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 14
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 16 1990 5217

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 31 2399 2896
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 31 2399 2896

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 4 16 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 19 111 3635 2546
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 4 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 23 123 3628 2546

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2408 3236 36 209 149 9 0 0
OW 0 93 25 105 98 32 0 0
VODI 0 25 11 158 119 62 0 0
ODI 0 6 3 78 187 79 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 29 240 211 29 0
VCDI 0 0 0 17 103 830 2729 12
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2408 3178 39 216 181 19 0 0
OW 0 133 11 73 93 37 0 0
VODI 0 49 21 133 87 78 3 0
ODI 0 0 4 109 119 72 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 32 253 186 81 0
VCDI 0 0 0 33 163 831 2667 12

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5153 3043 9 48 6 0 0 0
OW 0 192 2 35 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 139 4 58 12 0 0 0
ODI 0 56 8 80 14 0 0 0
CDI 0 29 4 79 77 3 0 0
VCDI 0 2 5 98 364 598 1491 79
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5153 2870 9 44 5 0 0 0
OW 0 186 1 19 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 164 2 31 10 0 0 0
ODI 0 110 2 35 14 0 0 0
CDI 0 67 8 60 21 0 0 0
VCDI 0 64 10 209 426 601 1491 79

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8101 3289 25 104 60 1 0 0
OW 0 70 22 66 17 2 0 0
VODI 0 34 6 82 43 1 0 0
ODI 0 16 5 26 86 1 0 0
CDI 0 1 3 47 124 52 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 91 324 283 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8101 3253 27 109 67 1 0 0
OW 0 82 21 49 15 3 0 0
VODI 0 38 5 86 33 1 0 0
ODI 0 23 0 23 83 2 0 0
CDI 0 14 7 27 108 52 1 0
VCDI 0 0 1 35 115 322 284 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 6 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 7 5 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 13 14 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 54 0 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 18 255 911 2716 1783
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 17 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 26 312 911 2718 1783

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 16 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 564 4001 4001
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 14 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 566 4001 4001

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12100 3932 33 84 17 0 0 0
OW 0 200 34 153 30 0 0 0
VODI 0 20 21 296 173 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 58 345 44 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 22 173 105 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 243 1266 849 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12100 3874 34 72 7 0 0 0
OW 0 206 36 154 37 0 0 0
VODI 0 63 13 299 241 9 0 0
ODI 0 8 1 44 230 43 0 0
CDI 0 1 4 17 168 73 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 34 298 1290 848 0


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