Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-03-11

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-03-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69244 14611 151 563 261 40 1 0
OW 62 531 86 512 190 20 6 0
VODI 0 175 48 600 430 35 10 0
ODI 0 61 8 265 651 120 33 0
CDI 0 43 9 145 1088 939 171 5
VCDI 0 27 14 370 1936 7236 25370 60981
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-03-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69087 14564 120 558 273 31 1 0
OW 62 633 77 478 179 19 6 0
VODI 0 255 55 488 476 34 11 0
ODI 0 115 17 239 637 81 33 0
CDI 0 64 18 173 797 784 205 5
VCDI 0 44 15 423 1833 6151 23139 64868
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-03-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68667 14842 142 568 274 21 0 0
OW 58 468 81 530 184 17 1 0
VODI 0 167 37 573 529 62 19 0
ODI 0 67 14 193 765 188 37 0
CDI 0 39 15 154 799 858 185 84
VCDI 0 16 8 176 1216 5651 24078 65265
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-03-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68982 14559 133 501 165 27 9 0
OW 54 518 85 486 139 8 0 0
VODI 0 242 42 643 455 30 0 0
ODI 0 124 15 195 674 132 2 0
CDI 0 52 24 167 652 685 152 104
VCDI 0 15 7 368 1467 4659 24862 65614
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68982 14574 145 507 167 25 9 0
OW 54 487 72 470 156 8 0 0
VODI 0 260 44 613 438 34 0 0
ODI 0 119 16 238 677 134 2 0
CDI 0 56 21 162 650 686 157 111
VCDI 0 14 8 370 1464 4654 24857 65607

Date: 2021-03-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68844 14553 125 500 210 41 2 0
OW 58 611 75 482 140 22 0 0
VODI 0 327 33 592 384 47 5 0
ODI 0 156 15 180 557 95 36 0
CDI 0 92 23 171 541 531 147 9
VCDI 0 41 16 349 1373 5558 27757 62350
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68844 14550 136 521 202 40 2 0
OW 58 548 58 469 151 21 0 0
VODI 0 396 35 558 387 45 5 0
ODI 0 148 22 202 518 102 39 0
CDI 0 97 18 172 546 521 161 17
VCDI 0 41 18 352 1401 5565 27740 62342

Date: 2021-03-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69551 13662 115 530 257 12 0 0
OW 54 580 85 384 185 40 0 0
VODI 0 220 43 610 409 81 8 0
ODI 0 78 16 261 689 162 28 0
CDI 0 30 7 191 704 569 85 13
VCDI 0 2 5 144 1096 5564 30398 60180
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69550 13341 123 528 294 25 0 0
OW 55 630 70 317 181 47 0 0
VODI 0 314 41 561 427 121 45 0
ODI 0 141 7 222 482 165 37 0
CDI 0 82 19 155 599 543 212 14
VCDI 0 64 11 337 1357 5527 30225 60179

Date: 2021-03-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69073 13895 147 575 220 8 0 0
OW 58 528 63 381 238 39 0 0
VODI 0 222 41 488 438 75 2 0
ODI 0 63 7 206 652 159 9 0
CDI 0 26 10 105 715 734 153 8
VCDI 0 9 3 61 951 5214 20703 70769
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69076 13598 144 575 264 18 0 0
OW 55 581 40 331 217 40 0 0
VODI 0 345 40 365 429 79 4 0
ODI 0 122 24 233 548 185 13 7
CDI 0 62 15 181 568 556 153 131
VCDI 0 35 8 131 1188 5351 20697 70639

Date: 2021-03-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68437 14470 131 503 236 41 0 0
OW 64 578 75 459 147 21 1 0
VODI 0 215 55 613 416 66 2 0
ODI 0 53 20 299 687 136 1 0
CDI 0 21 6 168 1022 800 89 7
VCDI 0 9 3 71 1141 5642 14355 75988
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68447 14197 120 571 247 42 1 0
OW 54 588 69 397 187 25 1 0
VODI 0 369 57 476 410 59 1 0
ODI 0 112 24 318 566 142 1 43
CDI 0 48 10 206 982 832 87 138
VCDI 0 32 10 145 1257 5606 14357 75814


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