Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2021-03-04

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-02-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71027 13702 129 394 62 14 0 0
OW 61 680 56 406 92 0 0 0
VODI 0 517 46 409 350 7 0 0
ODI 0 189 34 284 460 92 1 0
CDI 0 84 9 210 821 666 109 1
VCDI 0 184 16 236 1007 3352 7521 5872
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-02-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69319 14721 139 628 197 32 0 0
OW 61 625 76 354 186 0 0 0
VODI 0 375 66 454 411 21 0 0
ODI 0 126 30 340 543 110 4 0
CDI 0 59 8 174 864 590 96 0
VCDI 0 73 10 186 919 3568 8099 5636
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-03-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68753 15279 145 577 181 26 0 0
OW 62 447 88 600 139 3 0 0
VODI 0 177 47 613 471 9 0 0
ODI 0 61 8 267 786 66 0 0
CDI 0 38 3 80 1207 738 103 0
VCDI 0 34 8 127 855 3856 8246 5000
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-03-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68774 15122 143 594 215 31 0 0
OW 61 471 96 555 171 18 0 0
VODI 0 128 41 629 473 45 2 0
ODI 0 54 8 203 715 66 5 0
CDI 0 36 6 81 1094 785 169 0
VCDI 0 7 5 114 968 3621 8917 4677
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68774 15223 157 630 215 30 0 0
OW 61 390 85 525 174 26 0 0
VODI 0 122 38 625 456 42 3 0
ODI 0 51 8 208 745 73 7 0
CDI 0 26 6 70 1091 801 150 0
VCDI 0 6 5 118 955 3594 8933 4677

Date: 2021-03-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69192 14624 134 606 255 25 1 0
OW 62 569 71 476 161 13 5 0
VODI 0 242 51 517 446 27 7 0
ODI 0 85 19 274 566 56 11 0
CDI 0 45 16 159 831 544 40 0
VCDI 0 13 13 199 1509 4499 7742 4995
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69192 14692 143 636 256 24 1 0
OW 62 529 73 436 150 15 6 0
VODI 0 219 41 548 445 24 8 0
ODI 0 84 19 271 617 62 10 0
CDI 0 46 15 153 795 495 39 0
VCDI 0 8 13 187 1505 4544 7742 4995

Date: 2021-03-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68883 14689 119 492 307 19 0 0
OW 62 618 94 439 171 19 0 0
VODI 0 203 42 686 454 47 4 0
ODI 0 75 19 255 851 86 5 0
CDI 0 26 13 165 840 545 31 0
VCDI 0 0 1 89 857 3844 8701 5349
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68883 14563 132 517 325 25 0 0
OW 62 600 68 404 173 21 4 0
VODI 0 269 40 547 440 52 6 0
ODI 0 113 23 253 711 88 16 0
CDI 0 54 15 193 656 400 39 0
VCDI 0 12 10 212 1175 3974 8676 5349

Date: 2021-03-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68603 14794 153 515 238 31 2 0
OW 54 429 74 519 175 12 0 0
VODI 0 187 32 538 556 39 1 0
ODI 0 76 19 172 767 153 8 0
CDI 0 15 17 165 738 532 68 0
VCDI 0 1 2 144 1105 3203 9297 5666
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68602 14519 128 550 206 35 2 0
OW 55 585 83 376 200 12 1 0
VODI 0 227 44 493 447 45 6 0
ODI 0 108 15 271 680 144 17 0
CDI 0 56 16 178 776 445 87 0
VCDI 0 7 11 185 1270 3289 9263 5666

Date: 2021-03-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68903 14599 140 497 172 34 6 0
OW 54 519 59 503 130 13 1 0
VODI 0 273 44 486 508 42 1 0
ODI 0 119 20 188 565 171 6 0
CDI 0 64 20 170 536 525 92 0
VCDI 0 16 9 252 1138 3055 8983 6187
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68902 14042 121 541 220 40 7 0
OW 55 597 57 326 212 29 1 0
VODI 0 363 41 481 365 79 8 0
ODI 0 217 15 199 514 252 15 0
CDI 0 205 19 190 645 657 143 0
VCDI 0 166 39 359 1093 2783 8915 6187


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