Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-03-04

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-02-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71027 13736 129 394 62 14 0 0
OW 61 697 57 409 92 0 0 0
VODI 0 543 47 422 353 7 0 0
ODI 0 206 39 297 471 92 1 0
CDI 0 102 10 234 856 751 118 41
VCDI 0 251 23 309 1249 4564 18240 71144
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-02-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69319 14755 139 628 197 32 0 0
OW 61 648 76 354 187 0 0 0
VODI 0 396 71 460 416 21 0 0
ODI 0 143 32 354 558 110 4 0
CDI 0 75 9 184 901 708 132 3
VCDI 0 154 16 279 1227 5516 21734 67149
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-03-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68753 15324 148 579 181 26 0 0
OW 62 459 88 606 139 3 0 0
VODI 0 195 48 626 477 9 0 0
ODI 0 75 9 270 805 66 0 0
CDI 0 51 3 94 1288 831 107 0
VCDI 0 117 17 301 1285 6618 21591 65797
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-03-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68774 15153 146 600 215 31 0 0
OW 61 483 96 561 171 18 0 0
VODI 0 139 42 638 476 45 2 0
ODI 0 65 8 219 718 69 5 0
CDI 0 47 7 103 1182 917 209 0
VCDI 0 63 13 361 1463 5997 22968 64983
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68774 15257 159 633 215 30 0 0
OW 61 400 86 532 174 26 0 0
VODI 0 137 39 636 458 42 3 0
ODI 0 61 8 225 749 78 7 0
CDI 0 33 7 90 1174 931 188 0
VCDI 0 62 13 366 1455 5970 22986 64983

Date: 2021-03-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69192 14642 136 622 256 25 1 0
OW 62 574 72 480 165 13 5 0
VODI 0 251 51 522 454 27 7 0
ODI 0 97 20 289 580 63 42 2
CDI 0 52 18 188 924 679 152 94
VCDI 0 23 16 470 2224 6438 23216 63904
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69192 14710 145 652 256 24 1 0
OW 62 537 74 439 154 15 6 0
VODI 0 233 42 557 453 24 8 0
ODI 0 89 21 286 634 66 36 2
CDI 0 52 15 184 888 623 157 91
VCDI 0 18 16 453 2218 6493 23215 63907

Date: 2021-03-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68883 14713 121 504 312 19 0 0
OW 62 628 94 441 178 19 0 0
VODI 0 210 43 693 466 78 4 0
ODI 0 76 20 269 865 139 13 0
CDI 0 26 13 196 891 844 177 3
VCDI 0 0 1 194 1310 5988 24782 63773
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68883 14580 133 527 328 25 0 0
OW 62 607 69 405 178 21 4 0
VODI 0 281 40 551 449 84 8 0
ODI 0 119 24 260 720 134 22 0
CDI 0 54 16 206 694 661 176 11
VCDI 0 12 10 348 1653 6162 24766 63765

Date: 2021-03-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68603 14827 154 520 238 31 2 0
OW 54 442 75 524 176 12 0 0
VODI 0 198 36 550 558 39 1 0
ODI 0 83 20 180 776 159 12 4
CDI 0 21 17 175 765 736 237 121
VCDI 0 11 4 202 1428 5243 26439 63375
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68602 14535 128 552 206 35 2 0
OW 55 597 84 380 200 12 1 0
VODI 0 241 46 498 448 45 6 0
ODI 0 116 17 279 682 144 17 2
CDI 0 66 17 185 784 551 163 81
VCDI 0 27 14 257 1621 5433 26502 63417

Date: 2021-03-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68903 14628 140 500 172 34 6 0
OW 54 530 61 507 130 13 1 0
VODI 0 289 45 493 510 42 1 0
ODI 0 128 22 200 569 171 6 0
CDI 0 70 20 177 551 671 182 84
VCDI 0 25 12 299 1385 4600 22952 67865
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68902 14060 121 543 220 40 7 0
OW 55 611 57 331 212 29 1 0
VODI 0 375 43 486 367 79 8 0
ODI 0 228 16 207 516 252 15 0
CDI 0 217 20 198 651 729 209 27
VCDI 0 179 43 411 1351 4402 22908 67922


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