Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-02-25

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-02-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70707 13771 179 564 296 51 0 0
OW 62 430 46 334 198 23 0 0
VODI 0 292 38 272 437 55 0 0
ODI 0 147 23 187 472 118 1 0
CDI 0 82 20 167 737 584 94 13
VCDI 0 115 15 159 915 5084 17840 72520
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-02-21:

Best estimate Forecast
...observations not yet available ...observations not yet available

Date: 2021-02-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70230 14222 156 775 298 33 0 0
OW 61 579 56 305 224 10 0 0
VODI 0 399 44 255 513 34 1 0
ODI 0 187 24 183 458 188 37 0
CDI 0 107 18 247 631 961 262 88
VCDI 0 146 18 227 958 4183 15889 74041
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-02-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70471 14299 144 534 115 24 0 0
OW 61 728 51 308 158 2 0 0
VODI 0 494 61 360 365 17 0 0
ODI 0 231 22 323 414 113 0 0
CDI 0 115 17 280 620 991 343 28
VCDI 0 188 21 326 1129 4472 18493 70730
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70471 14359 147 524 97 23 0 0
OW 61 690 49 319 149 3 0 0
VODI 0 501 59 374 367 14 0 0
ODI 0 217 23 303 412 96 0 0
CDI 0 113 19 290 656 965 311 30
VCDI 0 175 19 321 1120 4518 18525 70728

Date: 2021-02-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69723 14617 143 606 133 5 0 0
OW 61 679 48 342 184 1 0 0
VODI 0 454 72 397 424 21 0 0
ODI 0 184 29 352 500 95 6 0
CDI 0 91 19 205 880 658 83 36
VCDI 0 231 18 320 1199 5182 19153 69897
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69723 14718 145 596 115 5 0 0
OW 61 613 52 347 175 1 0 0
VODI 0 436 63 410 418 14 0 0
ODI 0 166 33 350 520 84 5 0
CDI 0 109 17 181 876 661 86 35
VCDI 0 214 19 338 1216 5197 19151 69898

Date: 2021-03-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68857 15160 162 637 190 35 0 0
OW 65 586 82 484 174 0 0 0
VODI 0 286 68 596 492 8 0 0
ODI 0 83 15 336 773 96 3 0
CDI 0 55 1 68 1042 940 37 0
VCDI 0 100 12 217 1028 6082 21945 66333
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68861 15085 179 710 219 33 0 0
OW 61 495 57 446 204 2 0 0
VODI 0 318 57 422 520 19 0 0
ODI 0 123 26 310 595 149 0 0
CDI 0 81 5 159 865 797 112 0
VCDI 0 168 16 291 1296 6161 21873 66333

Date: 2021-03-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68789 15240 151 632 185 10 0 0
OW 62 456 88 545 216 9 0 0
VODI 0 154 41 592 492 23 0 0
ODI 0 68 8 219 706 88 0 0
CDI 0 41 4 115 1100 755 180 0
VCDI 0 113 15 401 1273 6810 22233 65234
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68788 15100 149 636 191 8 0 0
OW 63 427 76 441 199 6 0 0
VODI 0 168 44 534 458 38 0 0
ODI 0 83 11 243 609 156 0 0
CDI 0 74 6 117 961 687 194 3
VCDI 0 220 21 533 1554 6800 22219 65231

Date: 2021-03-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69244 14611 151 563 261 40 1 0
OW 62 531 86 512 190 20 6 0
VODI 0 175 48 600 430 35 10 0
ODI 0 61 8 265 651 120 33 0
CDI 0 43 9 145 1088 939 171 5
VCDI 0 27 14 370 1936 7236 25370 60981
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69244 14281 155 648 298 32 0 0
OW 62 459 49 383 247 34 2 0
VODI 0 279 41 360 460 75 6 0
ODI 0 143 18 198 434 205 25 0
CDI 0 121 18 165 760 1035 139 22
VCDI 0 165 35 701 2357 7009 25419 60964


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