Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-02-18

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-02-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70598 13835 147 632 416 50 3 0
OW 61 556 76 294 271 67 11 0
VODI 0 171 42 400 382 145 14 0
ODI 0 58 12 231 439 171 15 0
CDI 0 23 19 144 540 430 120 64
VCDI 0 41 10 177 838 4498 25477 65570
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-02-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70313 13972 141 630 316 43 0 0
OW 61 390 51 365 255 42 12 0
VODI 0 242 43 389 490 111 21 0
ODI 0 74 18 199 432 227 37 0
CDI 0 11 20 160 619 673 201 3
VCDI 0 0 0 96 989 3974 20632 70796
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-02-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70299 14199 173 683 258 59 6 0
OW 62 311 46 405 213 25 4 0
VODI 0 149 39 357 465 46 9 0
ODI 0 43 27 192 628 140 20 0
CDI 0 11 7 126 876 702 66 1
VCDI 0 2 4 53 804 4793 20776 69969
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-02-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70631 13983 147 622 211 46 0 0
OW 64 393 50 390 161 20 0 0
VODI 0 254 45 334 418 42 0 0
ODI 0 113 25 223 484 72 2 0
CDI 0 71 17 177 812 591 55 3
VCDI 0 72 13 172 1009 4999 19107 71220
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70633 13972 152 622 213 46 0 0
OW 62 408 47 390 143 22 0 0
VODI 0 251 44 323 431 35 0 0
ODI 0 121 23 231 477 87 2 0
CDI 0 67 19 187 783 530 50 3
VCDI 0 67 12 165 1048 5050 19112 71220

Date: 2021-02-20:

Best estimate Forecast
...observations not yet available ...observations not yet available

Date: 2021-02-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70199 14235 161 661 389 19 2 0
OW 61 569 44 274 275 7 3 0
VODI 0 371 36 245 510 24 5 0
ODI 0 151 28 162 517 212 50 0
CDI 0 92 17 196 833 861 207 73
VCDI 0 130 21 249 1051 4294 17906 71908
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70199 14218 157 684 351 23 5 0
OW 61 533 47 264 294 8 4 0
VODI 0 359 31 252 470 34 13 0
ODI 0 177 35 166 529 147 23 0
CDI 0 125 12 172 757 746 268 31
VCDI 0 136 25 249 1174 4459 17860 71950

Date: 2021-02-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70393 14390 150 597 170 25 0 0
OW 61 681 45 297 179 5 0 0
VODI 0 443 64 313 380 20 0 0
ODI 0 216 29 290 426 134 9 0
CDI 0 109 13 331 579 1015 276 16
VCDI 0 143 22 285 1132 4410 15972 73428
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70392 14313 144 590 196 36 0 0
OW 62 778 50 283 170 12 0 0
VODI 0 440 63 389 386 39 0 0
ODI 0 207 23 246 464 150 21 0
CDI 0 114 24 300 630 997 218 10
VCDI 0 130 19 305 1020 4375 16018 73434

Date: 2021-02-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71027 13736 129 394 62 14 0 0
OW 61 697 57 409 92 0 0 0
VODI 0 543 47 422 353 7 0 0
ODI 0 206 39 297 471 92 1 0
CDI 0 102 10 234 856 751 118 41
VCDI 0 251 23 309 1249 4564 18240 71144
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71026 13754 132 526 100 15 0 0
OW 62 772 58 401 151 10 0 0
VODI 0 457 47 396 470 45 0 0
ODI 0 199 24 235 440 206 4 0
CDI 0 126 16 193 707 757 131 11
VCDI 0 227 28 314 1215 4395 18224 71174


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