Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2021-02-11

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-02-15

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 323 13 48 11 0 0 0
OW 0 19 1 28 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 5 23 44 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 23 31 13 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 33 55 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 116 393 4004 31666
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 304 8 43 17 0 0 0
OW 0 26 4 22 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 14 4 20 31 3 0 0
ODI 0 4 4 22 27 12 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 23 30 46 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 18 131 400 4003 31666

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 39 3094
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 39 3094

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 9969
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 9969

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 260 1823 3560
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 13 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 258 1823 3560

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7246
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7246

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5326
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5326

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 3 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 4 21 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 25 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 65 2617 3582
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 5 19 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 2 13 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 18 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 74 2618 3582

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2233 3543 76 335 215 34 0 0
OW 0 27 10 118 122 20 6 0
VODI 0 11 4 96 210 36 14 0
ODI 0 4 2 34 210 69 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 120 211 31 0
VCDI 0 0 0 18 117 651 2715 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2233 3519 76 366 291 60 2 0
OW 0 24 9 86 143 40 17 0
VODI 0 20 1 71 179 74 24 0
ODI 0 15 2 27 140 76 35 0
CDI 0 7 3 25 99 159 61 0
VCDI 0 0 1 51 142 612 2641 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4690 3342 17 39 2 0 0 0
OW 0 95 16 79 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 9 146 49 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 62 131 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 176 48 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 49 526 1907 270
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4690 3219 13 39 3 0 0 0
OW 0 141 8 30 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 71 14 96 31 5 0 0
ODI 0 17 7 97 43 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 70 159 25 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 170 549 1907 270

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8676 3062 14 54 37 12 2 0
OW 0 136 8 6 5 8 1 0
VODI 0 71 22 35 6 3 0 0
ODI 0 9 19 69 17 6 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 40 157 97 33 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 44 131 202 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8676 2947 13 51 34 18 3 0
OW 0 134 8 11 6 1 0 0
VODI 0 118 12 19 6 2 0 0
ODI 0 69 10 35 16 4 13 0
CDI 0 10 20 79 108 101 37 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 96 131 191 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 83 5 15 0 0 0 0
OW 0 2 2 29 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 39 21 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 30 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 60 57 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 181 452 3263 1535
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 74 4 9 0 0 0 0
OW 0 8 1 18 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 1 36 10 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 20 15 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 64 19 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 207 494 3266 1535

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 81 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 450 3597 4450
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 85 9 9
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 440 3589 4441

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12914 3836 36 89 7 0 0 0
OW 0 46 19 158 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 7 155 142 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 43 311 18 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 250 377 9 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 155 943 670 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12914 3773 37 92 7 0 0 0
OW 0 111 20 166 37 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 5 153 201 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 27 234 64 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 162 170 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 242 1100 671 0


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