Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2021-02-11

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-02-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70673 14567 155 641 230 19 0 0
OW 61 466 63 389 230 34 2 0
VODI 0 186 43 436 409 75 11 0
ODI 0 51 15 234 443 110 23 0
CDI 0 5 8 160 754 357 58 0
VCDI 0 0 0 57 791 2458 8185 6701
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-02-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70939 14184 114 555 184 19 0 0
OW 61 643 59 332 163 39 2 0
VODI 0 271 70 391 368 86 6 0
ODI 0 87 22 260 453 91 17 0
CDI 0 38 14 141 820 405 50 0
VCDI 0 12 5 86 615 2278 8403 6817
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-02-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70799 14295 148 565 198 31 0 0
OW 61 566 81 376 141 39 1 0
VODI 0 197 49 474 350 51 10 0
ODI 0 63 8 194 550 71 11 0
CDI 0 30 12 82 773 248 25 1
VCDI 0 15 6 107 658 3284 7805 6725
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-02-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70753 13840 144 656 371 46 0 0
OW 61 532 69 317 236 42 8 0
VODI 0 194 52 373 346 88 13 0
ODI 0 46 12 251 355 150 14 0
CDI 0 13 7 130 524 346 35 0
VCDI 0 0 2 81 755 2935 9561 5742
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70753 13818 151 669 378 42 1 0
OW 61 538 61 295 223 42 8 0
VODI 0 198 51 373 331 89 12 0
ODI 0 54 12 251 360 132 14 0
CDI 0 17 9 132 503 318 38 0
VCDI 0 0 2 88 792 2984 9558 5742

Date: 2021-02-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70291 14016 144 673 304 21 0 0
OW 61 525 68 323 234 45 0 0
VODI 0 148 35 418 381 113 11 0
ODI 0 44 18 209 430 183 12 0
CDI 0 6 10 145 514 475 97 1
VCDI 0 0 0 40 684 2648 9104 6669
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70291 13974 143 680 316 28 0 0
OW 61 515 67 321 215 47 0 0
VODI 0 189 34 389 380 104 10 0
ODI 0 57 17 204 412 157 14 0
CDI 0 4 14 169 476 482 102 1
VCDI 0 0 0 45 748 2667 9098 6669

Date: 2021-02-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70312 14168 158 563 256 46 2 0
OW 61 324 54 408 161 28 7 0
VODI 0 102 47 480 434 46 14 0
ODI 0 14 23 232 676 119 20 0
CDI 0 0 0 90 747 795 76 0
VCDI 0 0 0 27 495 2174 9559 6382
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70311 13818 149 584 335 78 5 0
OW 62 441 47 329 189 41 17 0
VODI 0 227 37 383 421 89 24 0
ODI 0 105 24 216 439 166 48 0
CDI 0 17 24 209 554 479 109 0
VCDI 0 0 1 79 831 2355 9475 6382

Date: 2021-02-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70491 14110 161 584 200 49 0 0
OW 63 349 56 401 152 15 2 0
VODI 0 216 35 389 362 27 7 0
ODI 0 77 30 220 485 71 7 0
CDI 0 37 16 176 828 559 40 0
VCDI 0 29 6 108 888 3073 9132 5649
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70492 13649 151 587 306 80 8 0
OW 62 492 48 311 165 28 12 0
VODI 0 330 35 343 350 58 13 0
ODI 0 205 30 189 411 142 18 0
CDI 0 99 28 252 621 473 48 0
VCDI 0 43 12 196 1062 3013 9089 5649

Date: 2021-02-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70470 13904 156 644 313 51 0 0
OW 62 435 42 342 171 23 0 0
VODI 0 286 47 274 397 55 0 0
ODI 0 146 22 203 415 124 1 0
CDI 0 82 20 173 701 533 80 0
VCDI 0 115 15 159 968 3785 9041 4845
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70470 13473 154 734 456 114 0 0
OW 62 522 36 207 232 60 0 0
VODI 0 371 39 252 342 124 5 0
ODI 0 234 22 165 354 209 25 0
CDI 0 202 32 193 569 437 173 10
VCDI 0 166 19 244 1012 3627 8919 4835


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