Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2021-02-04

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-01-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72255 14339 131 468 126 6 0 0
OW 76 620 48 307 177 22 0 0
VODI 0 322 54 300 371 48 0 0
ODI 0 109 26 242 360 93 0 0
CDI 0 44 10 203 601 235 33 0
VCDI 0 43 8 127 1099 3864 9190 3143
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-01-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71675 14466 121 452 198 14 0 0
OW 60 540 61 384 168 27 0 0
VODI 0 288 54 401 386 73 0 0
ODI 0 79 17 211 363 162 5 0
CDI 0 45 14 209 545 386 85 0
VCDI 0 21 2 96 797 3162 8376 5157
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-02-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71078 14705 165 636 149 12 0 0
OW 60 328 51 425 278 17 1 0
VODI 0 154 27 393 495 45 4 0
ODI 0 53 13 235 495 152 9 0
CDI 0 24 11 170 537 462 28 0
VCDI 0 0 1 162 776 2638 10615 3696
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-02-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70609 14722 149 648 217 22 0 0
OW 61 452 52 417 219 27 5 0
VODI 0 225 45 406 409 77 12 0
ODI 0 72 19 238 415 108 21 0
CDI 0 19 17 184 665 347 79 0
VCDI 0 1 1 116 807 2230 9792 5195
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70609 14754 153 679 242 21 0 0
OW 61 415 48 399 203 32 5 0
VODI 0 227 42 383 397 72 14 0
ODI 0 70 24 238 443 103 21 0
CDI 0 25 13 193 658 324 64 0
VCDI 0 0 3 117 789 2259 9805 5195

Date: 2021-02-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70625 14498 131 623 248 31 0 0
OW 61 524 60 401 179 28 2 0
VODI 0 195 59 471 361 91 12 0
ODI 0 54 12 244 446 103 23 0
CDI 0 8 9 167 808 373 57 0
VCDI 0 0 0 72 721 2400 8342 6661
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70625 14556 142 656 265 32 0 0
OW 61 464 57 366 166 38 3 0
VODI 0 189 50 452 362 77 17 0
ODI 0 56 10 255 446 113 22 0
CDI 0 14 12 165 775 340 61 0
VCDI 0 0 0 84 749 2426 8333 6661

Date: 2021-02-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70823 14424 140 548 139 17 0 0
OW 61 576 79 385 142 31 2 0
VODI 0 191 55 533 382 47 8 0
ODI 0 57 17 186 650 80 11 0
CDI 0 26 9 91 838 358 31 0
VCDI 0 5 3 83 531 2907 8003 6631
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70823 14174 136 613 191 46 0 0
OW 61 619 64 294 148 46 10 0
VODI 0 282 55 403 347 57 15 0
ODI 0 106 22 243 507 70 21 0
CDI 0 73 12 126 699 247 25 0
VCDI 0 25 14 147 790 2974 7984 6631

Date: 2021-02-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70750 14044 153 677 275 46 0 0
OW 61 544 63 333 202 37 6 0
VODI 0 196 54 403 363 59 14 0
ODI 0 36 9 230 448 98 17 0
CDI 0 5 8 132 650 330 106 0
VCDI 0 0 0 74 716 3116 10490 4355
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70750 13880 155 688 328 84 4 0
OW 61 559 43 283 216 46 11 0
VODI 0 261 51 371 362 86 23 0
ODI 0 77 20 206 447 105 34 0
CDI 0 39 12 143 530 287 105 0
VCDI 0 9 6 158 771 3078 10456 4355

Date: 2021-02-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70598 13807 145 612 399 50 3 0
OW 61 549 74 288 220 67 11 0
VODI 0 167 42 385 335 135 14 0
ODI 0 58 10 201 406 162 15 0
CDI 0 8 17 110 511 397 69 0
VCDI 0 0 0 79 631 2373 9961 6130
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70598 13715 145 613 455 122 9 0
OW 61 509 62 283 190 87 15 0
VODI 0 195 43 363 355 152 26 0
ODI 0 86 9 178 382 203 27 0
CDI 0 53 13 100 416 410 117 0
VCDI 0 31 16 138 704 2210 9879 6130


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