Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2021-01-28

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-01-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73145 14053 116 436 256 38 0 0
OW 73 780 62 421 173 59 0 0
VODI 0 240 52 503 432 114 0 0
ODI 0 64 17 311 311 270 17 0
CDI 0 4 21 233 551 349 221 0
VCDI 0 0 1 90 1109 3136 7830 3612
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-01-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73704 13320 138 477 204 32 0 0
OW 96 716 34 287 209 54 0 0
VODI 12 387 45 329 362 140 0 0
ODI 2 98 34 273 306 254 10 0
CDI 0 18 19 258 418 312 198 0
VCDI 0 0 0 128 1200 3666 7643 3717
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-01-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73530 13745 130 439 125 5 0 0
OW 74 481 59 360 159 13 0 0
VODI 0 251 56 439 335 40 0 0
ODI 0 65 16 252 513 119 0 0
CDI 0 26 10 156 587 336 3 0
VCDI 0 3 2 104 995 3945 8122 3605
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-01-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73133 13584 134 545 137 7 0 0
OW 84 490 48 337 175 21 0 0
VODI 0 291 55 268 380 52 0 0
ODI 0 87 27 218 453 97 0 0
CDI 0 34 6 184 672 247 18 0
VCDI 0 20 4 113 940 3920 8043 4276
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73142 13631 132 530 143 6 0 0
OW 75 469 53 323 155 24 0 0
VODI 0 277 52 310 376 52 0 0
ODI 0 77 28 215 459 100 0 0
CDI 0 36 6 188 711 268 18 0
VCDI 0 16 3 99 913 3894 8043 4276

Date: 2021-01-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72114 14264 115 468 139 8 0 0
OW 76 647 69 332 133 20 0 0
VODI 0 323 56 338 355 46 0 0
ODI 0 127 23 223 369 102 0 0
CDI 0 53 11 214 583 228 49 0
VCDI 0 60 6 128 1102 3720 9308 3291
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72114 14326 112 471 150 7 0 0
OW 76 614 73 303 126 22 0 0
VODI 0 300 56 367 354 50 0 0
ODI 0 124 19 219 376 112 0 0
CDI 0 58 14 206 574 251 88 0
VCDI 0 52 6 137 1101 3682 9269 3291

Date: 2021-02-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71266 14890 152 485 170 17 0 0
OW 60 366 82 498 151 20 0 0
VODI 0 143 36 515 429 40 0 0
ODI 0 35 12 219 597 138 0 0
CDI 0 23 3 110 583 546 13 0
VCDI 0 3 1 72 692 2632 8010 6091
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71266 14484 140 513 236 24 0 0
OW 60 533 69 385 157 46 1 0
VODI 0 274 40 424 409 92 8 0
ODI 0 89 18 218 416 164 11 0
CDI 0 60 17 201 471 508 86 0
VCDI 0 20 2 158 933 2559 7917 6091

Date: 2021-02-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70658 14814 153 614 226 14 0 0
OW 60 410 62 350 291 32 1 0
VODI 0 209 29 362 481 91 9 0
ODI 0 66 21 231 404 216 15 0
CDI 0 18 13 207 536 395 53 2
VCDI 0 3 2 196 744 2551 9069 5492
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70658 14518 138 620 307 64 7 0
OW 60 521 53 286 237 61 24 0
VODI 0 292 50 373 469 140 39 0
ODI 0 103 14 225 360 262 39 0
CDI 0 67 12 158 528 389 113 0
VCDI 0 19 13 298 781 2383 8925 5494

Date: 2021-02-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70673 14567 155 641 230 19 0 0
OW 61 466 63 389 230 34 2 0
VODI 0 186 43 436 409 75 11 0
ODI 0 51 15 234 443 110 23 0
CDI 0 5 8 160 754 357 58 0
VCDI 0 0 0 57 791 2458 8185 6701
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70673 14294 146 631 292 71 9 0
OW 61 495 62 320 193 42 35 0
VODI 0 320 40 453 371 72 51 0
ODI 0 93 18 248 465 118 60 0
CDI 0 57 12 146 669 294 159 35
VCDI 0 16 6 119 867 2456 7965 6666


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