Description of algorithm Full domain   Ice concntr, edge pos   Contingency tables American sector European sector Asian sector GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-01-28

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-01-22:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 73145 14344 119 450 256 38 0 0 OW 73 795 63 433 175 59 0 0 VODI 0 253 53 526 440 116 0 0 ODI 0 66 19 342 337 287 36 0 CDI 0 7 23 287 617 452 264 1 VCDI 0 2 4 167 1543 6225 23177 61854	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-01-24:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 73704 13598 142 493 204 32 0 0 OW 96 731 37 300 210 54 0 0 VODI 12 398 46 346 371 140 0 0 ODI 2 102 34 284 336 256 10 0 CDI 0 18 19 289 525 392 254 8 VCDI 0 0 0 185 1716 6160 22635 62909	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-01-26:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 73530 14010 134 458 129 5 0 0 OW 74 489 61 373 168 13 0 0 VODI 0 259 56 452 349 40 0 0 ODI 0 66 17 267 541 131 0 0 CDI 0 26 10 184 670 441 4 25 VCDI 0 3 2 147 1299 5704 21139 65772	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-01-28:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 73133 13835 136 563 137 7 0 0 OW 84 508 49 353 180 21 0 0 VODI 0 300 56 283 394 52 0 0 ODI 0 90 27 228 474 98 0 0 CDI 0 34 6 201 714 301 18 1 VCDI 0 20 4 120 1153 5734 19384 68350	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 73142 13884 133 548 143 6 0 0 OW 75 485 55 336 160 24 0 0 VODI 0 285 53 329 389 52 0 0 ODI 0 81 28 222 478 101 0 0 CDI 0 36 6 208 759 324 19 5 VCDI 0 16 3 105 1123 5706 19383 68346

Date: 2021-01-30:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72114 14467 125 514 139 8 0 0 OW 76 670 72 338 133 20 0 0 VODI 0 345 57 354 355 46 0 0 ODI 0 139 25 242 373 103 0 0 CDI 0 60 12 234 617 278 49 0 VCDI 0 62 6 147 1294 5220 20476 67878	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72114 14529 122 516 150 7 0 0 OW 76 637 76 308 126 22 0 0 VODI 0 322 57 385 354 50 0 0 ODI 0 135 21 238 379 112 0 0 CDI 0 67 15 228 610 302 90 0 VCDI 0 53 6 154 1292 5182 20435 67878

Date: 2021-02-01:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 71266 15147 158 497 170 17 0 0 OW 60 404 82 498 151 20 0 0 VODI 0 179 38 515 429 40 0 0 ODI 0 62 14 229 606 148 0 1 CDI 0 48 4 125 600 642 43 3 VCDI 0 18 3 140 943 4791 21068 67889	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 71266 14704 146 525 236 24 0 0 OW 60 574 69 385 157 46 1 0 VODI 0 319 40 424 409 92 8 0 ODI 0 122 20 218 416 169 11 0 CDI 0 89 19 213 485 584 102 0 VCDI 0 50 5 239 1196 4743 20989 67893

Date: 2021-02-03:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 70658 15061 157 615 226 14 0 0 OW 60 449 62 350 291 32 1 0 VODI 0 251 29 362 481 91 9 0 ODI 0 105 21 231 407 238 15 0 CDI 0 53 13 211 605 579 126 13 VCDI 0 147 17 282 1055 5663 29001 59067	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 70658 14712 142 621 307 64 7 0 OW 60 580 53 286 237 61 24 0 VODI 0 342 50 373 469 140 39 0 ODI 0 144 14 225 362 280 40 0 CDI 0 109 12 162 568 510 195 12 VCDI 0 179 28 384 1122 5562 28847 59068

Date: 2021-02-05:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 70673 14746 166 657 230 19 0 0 OW 61 508 70 397 230 34 2 0 VODI 0 220 45 443 409 75 11 0 ODI 0 74 15 238 444 120 23 0 CDI 0 26 9 168 804 512 125 6 VCDI 0 91 11 130 1023 6074 29880 58279	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 70673 14433 158 642 292 71 9 0 OW 61 549 68 331 193 42 35 0 VODI 0 360 41 461 371 109 51 0 ODI 0 124 19 253 469 167 65 0 CDI 0 92 13 154 714 458 193 39 VCDI 0 107 17 192 1101 5987 29688 58246

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