Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-01-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-01-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74066 13995 179 888 537 3 0 0
OW 71 429 74 644 441 7 0 0
VODI 0 321 37 552 768 43 0 0
ODI 0 240 26 334 843 160 1 0
CDI 0 48 14 242 840 930 63 4
VCDI 0 2 1 144 1174 8475 25901 54551
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-01-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73757 14012 124 597 481 23 0 0
OW 71 536 59 502 363 42 0 0
VODI 0 257 41 455 707 110 2 0
ODI 0 99 23 330 664 186 21 0
CDI 0 57 21 315 1123 729 74 21
VCDI 0 7 3 181 1712 8109 28451 52783
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-01-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74488 13659 96 387 300 16 0 0
OW 71 753 88 335 168 17 0 0
VODI 0 223 69 633 420 27 0 0
ODI 0 66 22 334 527 152 3 0
CDI 0 28 16 256 969 857 82 1
VCDI 0 0 0 238 1919 8180 23137 58511
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-01-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73381 14430 103 390 256 34 0 0
OW 73 794 67 384 139 64 0 0
VODI 0 272 82 495 373 105 0 0
ODI 0 47 24 384 367 186 8 0
CDI 0 19 8 300 584 398 193 0
VCDI 0 2 1 155 1615 6844 23288 61183
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73381 14502 109 431 255 34 0 0
OW 73 690 62 351 145 49 0 0
VODI 0 311 81 508 390 125 0 0
ODI 0 42 25 374 384 194 1 0
CDI 0 16 7 295 608 394 177 0
VCDI 0 3 1 149 1552 6835 23311 61183

Date: 2021-01-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73177 14090 128 489 235 40 0 0
OW 73 809 71 340 226 49 0 0
VODI 0 306 52 501 396 126 0 0
ODI 0 73 37 323 345 270 26 0
CDI 0 4 11 312 599 486 324 9
VCDI 0 0 0 169 1545 5639 21520 64248
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73177 14260 132 524 231 48 0 0
OW 73 612 61 373 222 35 0 0
VODI 0 328 59 458 447 149 1 0
ODI 0 77 37 327 365 268 18 0
CDI 0 5 10 283 602 478 308 8
VCDI 0 0 0 169 1479 5632 21543 64249

Date: 2021-01-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73663 14061 139 494 93 0 0 0
OW 83 498 59 403 138 7 0 0
VODI 6 268 49 502 425 28 0 0
ODI 2 37 20 298 694 101 4 0
CDI 0 6 4 157 776 615 45 49
VCDI 0 0 1 100 1193 5966 22897 63167
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73664 13728 141 539 154 9 0 0
OW 82 577 37 313 218 39 0 0
VODI 6 374 39 300 373 107 0 0
ODI 2 134 34 264 382 197 1 0
CDI 0 42 16 285 493 390 115 40
VCDI 0 15 5 253 1699 5975 22830 63176

Date: 2021-01-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73305 13854 135 525 159 10 0 0
OW 75 503 44 324 202 31 0 0
VODI 0 274 63 301 382 72 0 0
ODI 0 70 26 255 478 164 0 0
CDI 0 28 7 173 676 383 9 5
VCDI 0 15 6 115 1170 5552 20138 67519
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73298 13451 129 522 219 39 0 0
OW 82 657 34 309 218 77 0 0
VODI 0 377 48 275 361 166 0 0
ODI 0 142 34 210 345 172 0 0
CDI 0 80 21 188 575 445 40 4
VCDI 0 37 15 189 1349 5313 20107 67520

Date: 2021-01-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72255 14587 139 476 126 6 0 0
OW 76 649 50 316 177 22 0 0
VODI 0 343 56 316 371 48 0 0
ODI 0 122 28 254 364 93 0 0
CDI 0 48 12 221 632 292 34 1
VCDI 0 45 8 144 1280 5425 19315 68717
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72255 14090 124 516 193 43 0 0
OW 76 766 43 236 218 41 0 0
VODI 0 438 38 251 436 83 0 0
ODI 0 263 23 169 352 160 1 0
CDI 0 183 54 308 422 365 102 11
VCDI 0 54 11 247 1329 5194 19246 68707


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