Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2021-01-14

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-01-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76005 12853 119 470 139 39 0 0
OW 67 521 68 429 128 12 0 0
VODI 0 231 41 622 351 36 0 0
ODI 0 108 17 247 357 88 0 0
CDI 0 57 12 173 455 230 0 0
VCDI 0 20 7 147 1131 4028 6821 3071
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-01-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76187 12502 124 496 160 88 0 0
OW 67 549 50 379 149 55 0 0
VODI 0 294 20 428 410 109 0 0
ODI 0 157 11 209 338 159 2 0
CDI 0 128 21 142 410 293 19 0
VCDI 0 113 28 374 1392 3662 7047 2528
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-01-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75268 13075 168 935 266 49 0 0
OW 67 236 36 420 262 16 0 0
VODI 0 188 16 351 558 55 0 0
ODI 0 100 10 121 534 144 0 0
CDI 0 73 21 183 508 610 6 0
VCDI 0 1 4 162 880 2982 6068 4727
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-01-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74203 13578 158 801 541 5 0 0
OW 70 334 60 459 360 24 0 0
VODI 0 170 17 375 605 41 0 0
ODI 0 90 11 164 585 137 0 0
CDI 0 51 14 165 541 546 4 0
VCDI 0 2 2 102 748 3269 6026 4842
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74203 13593 157 861 591 6 0 0
OW 70 325 62 421 335 29 0 0
VODI 0 165 19 357 582 47 0 0
ODI 0 86 9 160 585 147 0 0
CDI 0 52 11 155 542 565 5 0
VCDI 0 4 4 112 745 3228 6025 4842

Date: 2021-01-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73927 13597 151 818 348 10 0 0
OW 71 351 63 599 319 12 0 0
VODI 0 180 23 342 685 59 0 0
ODI 0 75 16 177 600 146 12 0
CDI 0 27 13 179 764 590 74 0
VCDI 0 0 0 54 771 2990 7381 3676
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73927 13619 163 988 429 16 0 0
OW 71 339 54 451 313 16 0 0
VODI 0 169 20 348 669 67 0 0
ODI 0 76 16 148 602 142 19 0
CDI 0 27 13 154 739 617 67 0
VCDI 0 0 0 80 735 2949 7381 3676

Date: 2021-01-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74260 13467 108 450 273 14 0 0
OW 71 639 93 407 181 3 0 0
VODI 0 134 53 718 406 11 0 0
ODI 0 32 14 284 623 105 0 0
CDI 0 16 5 126 960 687 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 19 815 3125 8762 2220
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74260 13218 123 600 500 31 0 0
OW 71 588 46 326 247 41 1 0
VODI 0 301 63 435 348 92 11 0
ODI 0 107 13 296 386 159 19 0
CDI 0 70 26 237 616 305 53 0
VCDI 0 4 2 110 1161 3317 8697 2220

Date: 2021-01-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74508 13137 90 361 243 26 0 0
OW 72 829 61 288 151 42 0 0
VODI 0 270 69 565 358 76 0 0
ODI 0 48 25 308 413 121 6 0
CDI 0 15 11 222 591 365 89 0
VCDI 0 0 0 124 1223 3624 7785 2984
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74508 13032 98 492 481 114 0 0
OW 72 697 50 255 209 117 11 0
VODI 0 335 48 436 248 133 42 0
ODI 0 119 28 262 327 138 66 0
CDI 0 99 19 230 557 307 54 0
VCDI 0 17 13 193 1157 3445 7707 2984

Date: 2021-01-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73145 14053 116 436 256 38 0 0
OW 73 780 62 421 173 59 0 0
VODI 0 240 52 503 432 114 0 0
ODI 0 64 17 311 311 270 17 0
CDI 0 4 21 233 551 349 221 0
VCDI 0 0 1 90 1109 3136 7830 3612
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73145 13558 113 564 466 180 0 0
OW 73 760 35 198 164 179 19 0
VODI 0 584 49 375 215 241 95 0
ODI 0 175 40 318 302 187 83 0
CDI 0 54 27 326 472 277 102 0
VCDI 0 10 5 213 1213 2902 7769 3612


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