Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-01-07

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-01-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78011 11938 105 358 241 130 0 0
OW 67 895 61 300 156 75 0 0
VODI 0 502 66 502 260 124 0 0
ODI 0 184 31 344 367 232 0 0
CDI 0 124 22 313 611 838 89 8
VCDI 0 204 29 528 1840 7279 24846 55368
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-01-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77027 12377 117 456 261 97 23 0
OW 67 929 71 348 180 60 34 0
VODI 0 625 58 515 336 78 45 0
ODI 0 196 33 358 403 140 42 0
CDI 0 169 17 299 649 796 99 5
VCDI 0 252 34 508 1933 6877 19844 60690
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-01-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76182 13954 168 583 195 32 0 0
OW 65 637 75 566 222 15 0 0
VODI 0 321 49 614 444 85 0 0
ODI 0 147 16 402 499 203 1 0
CDI 0 118 25 300 783 924 126 57
VCDI 0 101 21 439 2140 7258 25122 54159
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-01-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75524 13876 146 567 218 44 0 0
OW 65 817 76 531 199 17 0 0
VODI 0 636 70 665 571 50 0 0
ODI 0 307 48 445 494 130 1 0
CDI 0 173 21 357 801 640 60 52
VCDI 0 112 16 270 2090 8758 26050 52151
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75524 13952 150 555 253 43 0 0
OW 65 740 76 532 186 18 0 0
VODI 0 617 66 664 550 55 0 0
ODI 0 283 47 452 493 143 2 0
CDI 0 207 21 351 785 659 77 60
VCDI 0 122 17 281 2106 8721 26032 52143

Date: 2021-01-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76420 12931 115 582 219 48 0 0
OW 67 861 67 443 201 18 0 0
VODI 0 587 48 746 471 42 0 0
ODI 0 265 40 428 584 100 0 0
CDI 0 156 28 355 692 512 74 43
VCDI 0 118 20 336 2091 9775 23601 53964
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76420 13017 107 552 227 48 0 0
OW 67 770 74 463 235 15 0 0
VODI 0 565 49 749 421 43 0 0
ODI 0 277 40 408 550 124 0 0
CDI 0 195 30 365 726 495 70 60
VCDI 0 94 18 353 2099 9770 23605 53947

Date: 2021-01-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75661 14122 164 669 100 56 0 0
OW 66 392 81 704 183 17 0 0
VODI 0 212 29 870 610 73 0 0
ODI 0 112 10 297 1208 174 0 0
CDI 0 110 20 183 916 942 68 41
VCDI 0 38 15 218 1415 6733 26510 54029
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75658 13201 133 631 171 92 0 0
OW 69 639 58 514 277 75 0 0
VODI 0 495 45 631 453 175 5 0
ODI 0 266 23 416 602 216 28 0
CDI 0 237 25 327 751 481 122 13
VCDI 0 148 35 422 2178 6956 26423 54057

Date: 2021-01-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74222 14271 186 1134 318 0 0 0
OW 67 533 68 573 363 0 0 0
VODI 0 459 42 799 700 24 0 0
ODI 0 162 25 436 847 128 0 0
CDI 0 87 18 207 843 755 33 29
VCDI 0 4 2 163 1242 6528 25065 56715
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74218 13660 146 868 221 5 0 0
OW 71 614 64 572 328 27 0 0
VODI 0 553 44 613 606 99 0 0
ODI 0 373 37 469 508 245 0 0
CDI 0 189 30 421 825 561 85 3
VCDI 0 127 20 369 1825 6498 25013 56741

Date: 2021-01-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74066 13995 179 888 537 3 0 0
OW 71 429 74 644 441 7 0 0
VODI 0 321 37 552 768 43 0 0
ODI 0 240 26 334 843 160 1 0
CDI 0 48 14 242 840 930 63 4
VCDI 0 2 1 144 1174 8475 25901 54551
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74066 13383 115 541 394 14 0 0
OW 71 621 92 590 264 19 0 0
VODI 0 397 50 676 556 73 0 0
ODI 0 247 29 375 659 194 33 0
CDI 0 276 26 278 989 585 134 15
VCDI 0 111 19 344 1741 8733 25798 54540


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