Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2020-12-31

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-12-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77262 12365 100 299 109 26 8 0
OW 65 654 45 241 63 12 8 0
VODI 0 405 43 382 155 19 9 0
ODI 0 146 33 295 292 68 8 0
CDI 0 72 14 218 497 180 5 0
VCDI 0 63 14 212 1290 3970 6528 2925
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-12-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78174 11567 53 253 111 58 24 0
OW 68 813 41 197 105 16 10 0
VODI 0 583 47 306 216 18 12 0
ODI 0 224 46 281 206 102 8 0
CDI 0 145 37 231 376 139 53 0
VCDI 0 169 27 291 1319 2458 5977 4339
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-12-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77147 13015 79 298 111 38 5 0
OW 65 552 59 316 81 6 6 0
VODI 0 271 55 438 250 15 7 0
ODI 0 139 23 325 328 55 6 0
CDI 0 86 15 198 556 384 67 0
VCDI 0 151 21 287 1174 2333 5686 4452
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-12-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76998 12681 98 269 114 61 11 0
OW 67 752 57 271 61 7 8 0
VODI 0 370 57 494 142 25 8 0
ODI 0 128 22 349 267 67 9 0
CDI 0 88 9 264 560 372 68 0
VCDI 0 183 32 365 1333 2348 5643 4442
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76998 12787 102 299 116 62 12 0
OW 67 683 64 305 61 8 10 0
VODI 0 355 46 508 154 29 8 0
ODI 0 124 21 293 268 64 6 0
CDI 0 88 12 243 539 352 44 0
VCDI 0 165 30 364 1339 2365 5667 4442

Date: 2021-01-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77434 11812 96 329 138 43 0 0
OW 67 786 61 294 125 11 0 0
VODI 0 470 49 471 229 55 0 0
ODI 0 120 24 300 295 107 0 0
CDI 0 88 13 250 481 422 47 2
VCDI 0 195 24 403 1300 2905 8502 1152
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77434 11847 103 343 133 44 0 0
OW 67 775 51 291 133 13 0 0
VODI 0 462 51 478 237 49 0 0
ODI 0 120 26 285 274 101 0 0
CDI 0 87 10 227 464 405 58 6
VCDI 0 180 26 423 1327 2931 8491 1148

Date: 2021-01-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76486 13346 139 396 118 23 0 0
OW 65 463 77 500 122 5 0 0
VODI 0 173 53 624 303 15 0 0
ODI 0 62 9 269 438 65 0 0
CDI 0 59 9 137 673 659 12 0
VCDI 0 84 11 193 929 2714 8013 1856
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76480 12135 111 387 207 31 0 0
OW 71 878 68 346 132 19 0 0
VODI 0 614 48 445 252 64 0 0
ODI 0 195 30 281 297 129 0 0
CDI 0 99 12 219 476 445 7 0
VCDI 0 266 29 441 1219 2793 8018 1856

Date: 2021-01-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75645 13268 153 551 186 38 0 0
OW 65 455 67 540 189 15 0 0
VODI 0 203 35 527 475 56 0 0
ODI 0 56 17 210 437 133 0 0
CDI 0 41 15 147 596 577 15 0
VCDI 0 15 5 152 1139 3005 7541 2531
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75643 12240 126 534 247 65 0 0
OW 67 654 70 356 188 38 0 0
VODI 0 649 35 405 374 110 0 0
ODI 0 282 30 312 348 149 0 0
CDI 0 97 14 209 511 445 10 0
VCDI 0 116 17 311 1354 3017 7546 2531

Date: 2021-01-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76005 12853 119 470 139 39 0 0
OW 67 521 68 429 128 12 0 0
VODI 0 231 41 622 351 36 0 0
ODI 0 108 17 247 357 88 0 0
CDI 0 57 12 173 455 230 0 0
VCDI 0 20 7 147 1131 4028 6821 3071
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76005 12160 105 459 212 63 0 0
OW 67 714 49 250 124 28 0 0
VODI 0 643 62 385 305 50 0 0
ODI 0 157 26 489 314 120 0 0
CDI 0 64 12 290 491 244 9 0
VCDI 0 52 10 215 1115 3928 6812 3071


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