Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-12-31

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-12-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77262 13254 135 479 243 35 8 0
OW 65 682 51 320 134 34 8 0
VODI 0 426 44 420 344 71 9 0
ODI 0 157 36 345 428 210 8 0
CDI 0 80 15 254 943 553 40 1
VCDI 0 63 14 216 1660 8275 25185 54541
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-12-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78174 12306 97 377 267 96 24 0
OW 68 849 46 280 175 41 10 0
VODI 0 621 48 412 296 75 12 0
ODI 0 250 52 359 329 189 8 0
CDI 0 205 40 278 722 463 81 3
VCDI 0 190 35 331 1916 7501 23644 56178
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-12-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77147 13636 104 459 207 39 5 0
OW 65 586 76 394 155 12 6 0
VODI 0 294 56 515 387 28 7 0
ODI 0 149 24 373 512 108 6 0
CDI 0 93 16 220 1038 821 102 2
VCDI 0 151 21 309 1758 7237 20223 59707
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-12-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77002 13157 113 402 236 117 11 0
OW 67 808 65 321 126 52 8 0
VODI 0 412 62 541 212 102 8 0
ODI 0 150 25 393 350 201 14 0
CDI 0 100 10 306 767 732 97 1
VCDI 0 183 32 439 2000 7116 20559 59751
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77002 13275 118 432 241 125 12 0
OW 67 732 70 355 128 53 10 0
VODI 0 395 52 559 219 114 10 0
ODI 0 145 24 337 344 174 12 0
CDI 0 98 13 281 741 701 90 1
VCDI 0 165 30 438 2018 7153 20563 59751

Date: 2021-01-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77438 12249 118 438 240 122 11 0
OW 67 880 67 338 160 60 25 0
VODI 0 567 53 516 284 103 32 0
ODI 0 184 29 325 394 248 18 0
CDI 0 157 19 289 665 766 92 16
VCDI 0 233 32 518 2039 7401 23012 56843
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77438 12273 125 451 234 114 10 0
OW 67 895 56 336 168 69 22 0
VODI 0 552 55 521 292 96 26 0
ODI 0 178 32 316 372 248 24 0
CDI 0 151 16 264 648 718 114 18
VCDI 0 221 34 536 2068 7455 22994 56841

Date: 2021-01-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76499 13917 156 506 170 38 0 0
OW 65 600 80 575 151 39 0 0
VODI 0 232 68 716 375 83 3 0
ODI 0 115 15 345 560 136 17 0
CDI 0 90 12 208 908 891 103 40
VCDI 0 122 19 286 1511 6502 21323 59572
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76493 12576 129 522 289 96 1 0
OW 71 990 72 411 180 80 15 0
VODI 0 728 50 496 305 115 33 0
ODI 0 271 36 304 399 197 38 0
CDI 0 176 20 301 584 627 121 49
VCDI 0 335 43 602 1918 6574 21238 59563

Date: 2021-01-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75680 13997 162 645 205 38 0 0
OW 65 742 82 588 207 15 0 0
VODI 0 473 48 664 517 61 0 0
ODI 0 253 41 425 578 178 7 0
CDI 0 215 32 335 881 809 176 25
VCDI 0 87 15 376 2409 8081 25688 52248
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75678 12927 145 693 308 69 0 0
OW 67 819 81 465 227 49 0 0
VODI 0 947 45 577 504 134 0 0
ODI 0 474 40 391 514 203 2 0
CDI 0 233 19 254 701 603 47 30
VCDI 0 367 50 653 2543 8124 25822 52243

Date: 2021-01-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76018 13424 132 554 149 39 0 0
OW 67 877 79 495 140 12 0 0
VODI 0 665 63 763 451 36 0 0
ODI 0 373 33 409 485 104 0 0
CDI 0 185 26 283 801 482 34 41
VCDI 0 77 16 259 1699 9576 25408 52793
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76018 12909 130 612 237 63 0 0
OW 67 900 52 314 163 28 0 0
VODI 0 955 76 477 388 50 0 0
ODI 0 424 41 631 409 121 0 0
CDI 0 212 24 366 765 340 107 33
VCDI 0 201 26 363 1763 9647 25335 52801


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