Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2020-12-24

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-12-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 19 0 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 81 10 28 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 132 26 188 121 0 0 0
ODI 0 10 7 167 398 152 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 97 831 765 28 0
VCDI 0 0 0 61 941 5129 12653 24019
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-12-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 44 1 9 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 64 14 138 57 26 17 0
ODI 0 13 3 158 346 89 51 0
CDI 0 0 0 55 603 409 143 8
VCDI 0 0 0 74 1000 4947 12416 25181
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-12-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0
OW 0 26 5 30 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 1 58 58 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 28 381 63 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 532 346 10 7
VCDI 0 0 0 1 461 4252 12836 26754
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-12-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 2 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 40 55 35 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 28 75 65 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 30 247 441 12 12
VCDI 0 0 0 27 304 3439 12425 28626
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 4 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 37 39 34 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 29 78 49 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 248 431 13 12
VCDI 0 0 0 29 313 3466 12424 28626

Date: 2020-12-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 8 15 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 41 37 20 0 0
CDI 0 15 4 17 150 245 28 0
VCDI 0 3 0 38 251 2918 11835 30239
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 5 18 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 41 28 19 0 0
CDI 0 18 4 26 149 193 26 1
VCDI 0 0 0 32 257 2971 11837 30238

Date: 2020-12-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 8 3 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 88 87 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 504 175 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 616 3878 10955 29518
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 25 58 4 0 0
CDI 0 2 2 67 382 146 8 1
VCDI 0 0 0 23 768 3908 10953 29517

Date: 2020-12-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 18 44 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 210 214 1 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 402 3799 9050 32122
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 1 19 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 168 177 1 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 461 3857 9050 32122

Date: 2021-01-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 2 22 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 18 64 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 96 153 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 296 3318 10713 31184
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 34 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 27 80 9 78
VCDI 0 0 0 0 385 3430 10704 31106


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