Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-12-24

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-12-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78376 13279 147 609 367 29 0 0
OW 63 719 59 328 416 68 1 0
VODI 0 459 71 547 552 95 22 0
ODI 0 86 31 463 939 318 24 0
CDI 0 18 15 252 1448 1182 101 2
VCDI 0 0 0 181 1883 9891 26802 47205
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-12-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78038 12937 129 570 353 86 1 0
OW 70 663 47 243 287 101 0 0
VODI 0 380 70 550 464 271 31 0
ODI 0 98 21 424 822 290 74 0
CDI 0 7 10 194 1307 873 196 8
VCDI 0 0 0 131 1825 9881 28039 47557
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-12-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77219 13852 154 660 185 28 8 0
OW 66 449 56 399 186 16 7 0
VODI 0 228 44 439 507 36 9 0
ODI 0 54 19 310 1044 188 14 0
CDI 0 5 4 156 1380 831 47 13
VCDI 0 0 0 65 1089 9894 27652 49735
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-12-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77981 12754 124 406 196 32 1 0
OW 65 574 50 344 163 26 1 0
VODI 0 353 46 441 383 85 1 0
ODI 0 132 30 266 640 163 0 0
CDI 0 87 15 236 1046 742 44 24
VCDI 0 11 13 201 1656 8341 26549 52826
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77981 12756 131 448 221 36 1 0
OW 65 590 40 326 158 27 1 0
VODI 0 342 49 416 397 88 1 0
ODI 0 132 31 266 629 147 0 0
CDI 0 81 17 246 1012 758 46 23
VCDI 0 10 10 192 1667 8333 26547 52827

Date: 2020-12-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77817 12694 108 392 264 68 15 0
OW 66 762 63 325 114 53 10 0
VODI 0 523 48 427 276 72 14 0
ODI 0 205 34 378 365 167 11 0
CDI 0 121 32 259 707 526 94 0
VCDI 0 131 15 310 1794 7711 23315 56762
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77818 12716 114 430 285 79 19 0
OW 65 734 57 293 117 46 8 0
VODI 0 538 46 399 295 78 12 0
ODI 0 198 34 365 305 177 16 0
CDI 0 129 33 274 672 489 100 5
VCDI 0 121 16 330 1846 7728 23304 56757

Date: 2020-12-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77320 13680 111 408 191 50 17 0
OW 64 607 72 417 117 9 7 0
VODI 0 291 62 573 432 28 9 0
ODI 0 157 22 380 651 90 8 0
CDI 0 100 22 208 1231 708 94 5
VCDI 0 160 18 252 1611 7300 23005 56561
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77319 12935 104 447 290 69 27 0
OW 65 846 45 321 189 23 14 0
VODI 0 606 66 364 337 78 11 0
ODI 0 246 34 322 343 180 27 0
CDI 0 175 26 363 890 419 95 12
VCDI 0 187 32 421 2184 7416 22966 56554

Date: 2020-12-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77419 13070 95 417 240 46 6 0
OW 73 720 77 310 150 27 2 0
VODI 0 342 63 565 276 54 0 0
ODI 0 120 25 428 453 144 0 0
CDI 0 92 10 286 911 710 35 5
VCDI 0 188 25 348 1902 7454 20053 59907
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77399 12250 87 412 317 93 8 0
OW 91 884 42 272 171 42 0 0
VODI 2 680 58 346 289 121 1 0
ODI 0 279 50 359 255 227 10 0
CDI 0 143 23 385 724 612 102 1
VCDI 0 296 35 580 2176 7340 19975 59911

Date: 2021-01-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78011 11938 105 358 241 130 0 0
OW 67 895 61 300 156 75 0 0
VODI 0 502 66 502 260 124 0 0
ODI 0 184 31 344 367 232 0 0
CDI 0 124 22 313 611 838 89 8
VCDI 0 204 29 528 1840 7279 24846 55368
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78008 11266 93 349 302 202 0 0
OW 70 926 36 201 169 94 0 0
VODI 0 726 58 307 209 174 1 0
ODI 0 355 37 353 188 269 17 0
CDI 0 234 34 310 554 577 166 93
VCDI 0 340 56 825 2053 7362 24751 55283


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