Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2020-12-17

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-12-21

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 111 2 43 9 0 0 0
OW 0 10 6 19 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 1 22 28 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 17 34 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 40 49 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 58 850 6266 29306
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 95 1 40 10 0 0 0
OW 0 16 2 14 18 8 0 0
VODI 0 9 4 18 34 50 10 0
ODI 0 2 1 12 22 17 22 0
CDI 0 1 1 17 19 34 30 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 81 798 6204 29306

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 50 480 2603
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 50 480 2603

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 5 1 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 75 2600 7298
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 9
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 80 2597 7292

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 62 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 145 75 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 221 2203 2277 654
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 7 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 56 57 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 366 2220 2277 654

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 1187 2682 3367
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 4 1 7
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 1188 2681 3363

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 24 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 149 2697 2437
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 23 24 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 150 2692 2437

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1054 33 181 23 0 0 0
OW 0 21 9 94 64 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 4 153 165 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 12 331 32 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 224 339 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 27 1047 2511 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1051 32 175 34 0 0 0
OW 0 24 7 82 87 4 0 0
VODI 0 3 7 153 150 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 26 235 21 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 202 166 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 126 1220 2503 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5747 3327 42 252 61 5 0 0
OW 0 31 0 46 111 16 0 0
VODI 0 3 1 15 133 66 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 7 102 230 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 29 189 18 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 531 354 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5747 3306 40 279 174 38 0 0
OW 0 38 2 21 101 47 0 0
VODI 0 15 1 10 80 147 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 9 43 152 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 27 140 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 25 513 365 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5620 2738 3 21 0 0 0 0
OW 0 90 13 53 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 35 13 89 19 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 93 42 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 121 12 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 163 765 1596 172
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5620 2640 3 13 0 0 0 0
OW 0 122 5 31 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 79 14 74 16 0 0 0
ODI 0 22 7 81 33 0 0 0
CDI 0 2 2 63 83 5 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 23 218 772 1596 172

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8846 2996 31 128 97 22 5 0
OW 0 104 7 21 13 9 3 0
VODI 0 59 14 52 37 17 3 0
ODI 0 1 1 52 63 31 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 114 102 18 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 9 64 32 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8846 2979 34 132 105 38 11 0
OW 0 92 5 27 14 15 0 0
VODI 0 55 4 42 19 22 11 0
ODI 0 25 5 17 41 15 7 0
CDI 0 9 4 39 82 59 11 0
VCDI 0 0 1 28 72 96 26 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 728 11 26 3 0 0 0
OW 0 35 10 41 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 8 50 21 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 45 36 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 77 22 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 178 580 2642 1231
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 634 7 13 5 0 0 0
OW 0 79 3 16 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 46 11 37 25 4 0 0
ODI 0 12 8 48 17 8 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 46 45 23 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 26 230 571 2642 1231

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 56 50 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 24 214 25 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 131 482 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 47 2115 4894 549
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 43 36 17 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 29 174 101 39 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 111 285 161 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 121 2219 4693 549

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15565 2812 20 28 0 0 0 0
OW 3 123 27 91 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 41 6 154 95 0 0 0
ODI 0 11 2 43 370 13 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 228 157 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 359 53 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15551 2518 16 30 1 0 0 0
OW 17 202 15 34 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 169 17 93 42 0 0 0
ODI 0 72 5 118 247 7 0 0
CDI 0 26 2 41 354 95 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 46 427 53 0


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