Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-12-17

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-12-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81469 14590 195 1109 584 100 0 0
OW 54 1057 97 807 499 156 0 0
VODI 0 468 57 804 661 395 0 0
ODI 0 89 45 376 890 748 34 0
CDI 0 10 9 281 1019 1501 220 4
VCDI 0 0 0 55 1212 8789 16719 51945
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-12-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80135 14010 179 948 497 54 3 0
OW 59 1306 75 701 754 150 9 0
VODI 0 589 82 863 923 311 39 0
ODI 0 183 51 522 750 528 58 0
CDI 0 15 17 408 1195 1235 336 5
VCDI 0 0 0 102 1641 8324 24255 45736
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-12-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79015 14543 159 677 324 34 0 0
OW 61 1024 109 532 347 36 6 0
VODI 0 447 89 904 859 117 6 0
ODI 0 111 31 492 1526 379 5 0
CDI 0 51 6 206 1555 1086 66 8
VCDI 0 49 10 179 1339 9217 28076 43367
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-12-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78422 13786 144 558 467 47 0 0
OW 61 691 71 362 334 107 1 0
VODI 0 413 73 737 629 150 16 0
ODI 0 110 34 439 1190 370 22 0
CDI 0 27 19 242 1515 974 91 0
VCDI 0 4 2 350 1690 8863 26533 47504
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78422 13801 152 589 553 92 0 0
OW 61 675 60 320 278 88 0 0
VODI 0 419 78 759 578 151 19 0
ODI 0 107 32 430 1142 371 26 0
CDI 0 25 19 233 1497 992 116 0
VCDI 0 4 2 357 1777 8817 26502 47504

Date: 2020-12-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78765 12491 136 604 319 56 0 0
OW 84 707 54 256 363 101 0 0
VODI 0 468 75 563 518 138 9 0
ODI 0 113 33 494 738 243 16 0
CDI 0 12 12 255 1487 1038 65 0
VCDI 0 0 0 143 2305 11400 27146 45841
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78774 12496 137 627 395 70 0 0
OW 75 682 53 265 294 109 0 0
VODI 0 450 74 552 544 137 5 0
ODI 0 150 30 476 689 272 26 0
CDI 0 13 15 213 1365 1034 66 0
VCDI 0 0 1 182 2443 11354 27139 45841

Date: 2020-12-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77568 13773 142 679 193 27 5 0
OW 66 414 72 365 237 25 3 0
VODI 0 151 47 591 552 84 3 0
ODI 0 15 5 297 1254 344 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 92 1109 1461 59 6
VCDI 0 0 0 8 720 9975 29084 47617
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77554 13230 133 682 329 76 11 0
OW 80 573 39 225 246 74 0 0
VODI 0 376 58 470 405 248 22 0
ODI 0 135 26 340 819 323 70 0
CDI 0 39 9 220 979 891 247 16
VCDI 0 0 1 95 1287 10304 28809 47607

Date: 2020-12-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77334 13375 126 562 230 24 4 0
OW 68 568 49 333 196 8 7 0
VODI 0 304 46 430 411 40 8 0
ODI 0 118 35 305 793 162 11 0
CDI 0 24 21 239 1346 848 44 9
VCDI 0 0 1 152 1262 9793 27698 50064
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77288 13015 136 683 352 38 17 0
OW 109 532 35 269 279 26 7 0
VODI 5 434 29 319 526 78 8 0
ODI 0 233 31 268 638 219 16 0
CDI 0 150 27 240 1045 944 119 7
VCDI 0 25 20 242 1398 9570 27605 50066

Date: 2020-12-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77262 13254 135 479 243 35 8 0
OW 65 682 51 320 134 34 8 0
VODI 0 426 44 420 344 71 9 0
ODI 0 157 36 345 428 210 8 0
CDI 0 80 15 254 943 553 40 1
VCDI 0 63 14 216 1660 8275 25185 54541
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77262 12925 158 699 340 69 21 0
OW 65 564 35 320 225 43 12 0
VODI 0 441 29 319 444 117 0 0
ODI 0 251 18 187 453 174 5 0
CDI 0 232 14 186 736 608 116 33
VCDI 0 249 41 323 1554 8167 25104 54509


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