Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2020-12-10

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-12-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 205 3897 53 228 46 0 0 0
OW 0 454 56 418 214 8 0 0
VODI 0 89 17 287 550 79 0 0
ODI 0 20 6 54 403 521 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 523 833 11 11
VCDI 0 0 0 91 716 5531 10997 19527
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-12-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14 3114 77 270 218 28 0 0
OW 0 464 52 378 341 108 0 0
VODI 0 108 18 206 358 355 0 0
ODI 0 27 4 54 211 597 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 323 907 159 33
VCDI 0 0 0 57 307 4552 11533 20971
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-12-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22 2939 82 267 47 0 0 0
OW 0 310 55 368 202 4 0 0
VODI 0 24 10 303 533 104 0 0
ODI 0 3 1 56 754 499 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 622 1022 181 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 298 2839 9563 24754
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-12-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2 1703 106 534 160 3 0 0
OW 0 465 60 509 216 87 0 0
VODI 0 59 7 265 365 284 0 0
ODI 0 5 3 57 557 484 84 0
CDI 0 0 1 24 418 1150 127 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 481 4521 7520 25609
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2 1776 108 626 229 7 0 0
OW 0 402 53 363 161 74 0 0
VODI 0 49 13 304 354 268 0 0
ODI 0 5 2 78 488 391 57 0
CDI 0 0 1 18 432 979 89 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 533 4810 7585 25609

Date: 2020-12-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 882 50 340 217 13 0 0
OW 0 372 35 474 432 138 0 0
VODI 0 172 24 410 294 285 7 0
ODI 0 3 2 155 190 424 112 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 293 659 445 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 244 4843 10827 23513
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 921 55 365 221 18 0 0
OW 0 394 28 426 400 118 0 0
VODI 0 112 25 435 303 287 6 0
ODI 0 2 3 155 205 353 96 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 287 668 292 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 254 4918 10997 23513

Date: 2020-12-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 627 14 54 2 0 0 0
OW 0 377 39 271 63 0 0 0
VODI 0 139 22 563 584 32 0 0
ODI 0 38 7 178 951 135 6 0
CDI 0 21 1 75 470 727 88 0
VCDI 0 8 1 69 584 4447 14435 20838
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 412 17 104 116 12 0 0
OW 0 408 30 238 244 100 0 0
VODI 0 199 20 423 632 204 30 0
ODI 0 104 9 189 535 199 66 0
CDI 0 63 3 146 416 448 299 0
VCDI 0 24 5 110 711 4378 14134 20838

Date: 2020-12-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 115 1 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 183 25 128 49 0 0 0
VODI 0 178 24 369 428 50 0 0
ODI 0 63 7 146 717 183 0 0
CDI 0 57 7 67 639 573 24 0
VCDI 0 71 14 161 762 4894 13875 22051
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 74 5 18 23 3 0 0
OW 0 201 21 98 135 65 0 0
VODI 0 93 23 400 651 367 11 0
ODI 0 80 5 109 616 374 53 0
CDI 0 70 5 69 448 515 138 0
VCDI 0 149 19 182 722 4376 13697 22051

Date: 2020-12-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 19 0 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 81 10 28 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 132 26 188 121 0 0 0
ODI 0 10 7 167 398 152 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 97 831 765 28 0
VCDI 0 0 0 61 941 5129 12653 24019
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 7 1 2 1 2 0 0
OW 0 116 14 87 17 25 0 0
VODI 0 100 21 235 273 167 1 0
ODI 0 15 6 91 440 691 77 0
CDI 0 5 1 43 647 744 117 0
VCDI 0 0 1 84 913 4417 12486 24019


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