Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-12-10

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-12-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83716 17122 183 751 440 128 14 0
OW 35 1243 117 929 465 36 12 0
VODI 0 417 54 785 1046 131 31 0
ODI 0 132 30 347 925 647 38 0
CDI 0 29 10 191 961 1398 128 66
VCDI 0 4 3 183 1462 10322 24570 37947
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-12-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82544 16007 212 904 748 316 0 0
OW 35 1181 91 712 647 202 0 0
VODI 0 452 77 526 1128 538 0 0
ODI 0 112 27 314 684 894 4 0
CDI 0 20 11 215 835 1567 187 54
VCDI 0 0 1 118 905 8907 23793 42080
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-12-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81740 16658 212 758 353 131 0 0
OW 50 709 140 843 477 54 0 0
VODI 0 117 45 844 1120 186 0 0
ODI 0 9 11 293 1804 652 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 74 1570 1855 222 17
VCDI 0 0 0 10 645 6829 17702 50914
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-12-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80765 15908 240 1022 460 114 0 0
OW 60 1025 136 890 394 136 0 0
VODI 0 320 56 766 850 359 0 0
ODI 0 45 25 354 1264 615 84 0
CDI 0 3 6 201 1267 1754 181 10
VCDI 0 0 0 17 953 7934 17138 51696
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80774 16100 253 1165 521 114 0 0
OW 51 875 118 704 332 119 0 0
VODI 0 275 59 808 812 346 0 0
ODI 0 51 27 340 1204 503 61 0
CDI 0 0 6 202 1266 1534 152 13
VCDI 0 0 0 31 1053 8296 17190 51693

Date: 2020-12-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80804 14497 205 937 587 55 0 0
OW 62 1165 90 802 644 171 1 0
VODI 0 610 74 848 623 357 18 0
ODI 0 146 43 439 771 522 123 0
CDI 0 15 20 301 1080 1060 485 16
VCDI 0 0 0 122 1361 9006 18639 50349
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80813 14769 221 993 587 57 0 0
OW 53 941 80 769 600 149 0 0
VODI 0 529 66 855 674 345 22 0
ODI 0 162 38 386 778 451 109 0
CDI 0 32 24 278 1057 1083 347 14
VCDI 0 0 3 168 1370 9086 18788 50351

Date: 2020-12-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79183 14937 180 808 350 42 0 0
OW 59 873 115 712 276 75 8 0
VODI 0 284 77 1204 990 155 4 0
ODI 0 59 19 460 1792 440 13 0
CDI 0 23 2 144 1309 1663 149 1
VCDI 0 8 1 125 1031 8561 26349 44567
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79187 14359 175 958 606 119 2 0
OW 55 1066 79 512 463 229 13 0
VODI 0 502 84 835 932 419 56 0
ODI 0 163 44 568 900 385 104 0
CDI 0 70 7 394 1197 966 383 4
VCDI 0 24 5 186 1650 8818 25965 44564

Date: 2020-12-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78721 14147 160 670 336 28 0 0
OW 62 772 91 475 323 51 4 0
VODI 0 435 82 946 781 147 7 0
ODI 0 130 32 450 1248 358 5 0
CDI 0 61 15 224 1398 1041 47 4
VCDI 0 71 14 265 1627 9430 27440 44950
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78722 13772 177 871 457 63 3 0
OW 61 914 60 387 482 154 9 0
VODI 0 472 74 768 1035 544 22 0
ODI 0 199 34 395 939 601 74 0
CDI 0 104 23 243 977 865 213 6
VCDI 0 155 26 366 1823 8828 27182 44948

Date: 2020-12-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78376 13279 147 609 367 29 0 0
OW 63 719 59 328 416 68 1 0
VODI 0 459 71 547 552 95 22 0
ODI 0 86 31 463 939 318 24 0
CDI 0 18 15 252 1448 1182 101 2
VCDI 0 0 0 181 1883 9891 26802 47205
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78378 13167 159 764 495 34 0 0
OW 61 705 57 358 466 88 7 0
VODI 0 467 54 528 905 389 17 0
ODI 0 132 25 273 869 1101 105 0
CDI 0 65 13 177 1055 1297 181 13
VCDI 0 25 15 280 1815 8674 26640 47194


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