Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2020-12-03

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-11-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1221 4892 75 265 155 14 1 0
OW 147 476 25 326 296 110 38 0
VODI 14 264 32 194 424 212 39 0
ODI 0 97 18 145 639 384 49 0
CDI 0 58 11 140 375 742 211 26
VCDI 0 2 2 84 470 2758 7740 22695
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-11-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 341 4782 80 410 145 15 0 0
OW 1 580 39 259 432 237 28 0
VODI 0 143 14 235 395 380 54 0
ODI 0 4 6 106 410 399 97 0
CDI 0 10 1 61 373 1015 200 0
VCDI 0 6 3 18 243 2171 8271 23902
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-12-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 160 4455 80 254 56 0 0 0
OW 0 289 58 460 215 3 0 0
VODI 0 71 13 210 620 179 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 21 636 692 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 628 1084 195 4
VCDI 0 0 0 41 276 2954 7946 24250
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-12-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 207 4014 73 172 48 0 0 0
OW 0 453 65 458 205 4 0 0
VODI 0 79 12 244 621 59 0 0
ODI 0 19 1 33 631 414 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 799 952 15 0
VCDI 0 0 0 75 701 4325 9725 21452
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 205 4044 79 232 64 0 0 0
OW 2 402 61 398 164 6 0 0
VODI 0 105 10 235 587 55 0 0
ODI 0 14 1 41 612 362 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 840 933 9 0
VCDI 0 0 0 76 738 4398 9731 21452

Date: 2020-12-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11 3589 63 288 135 11 0 0
OW 0 483 44 356 312 41 0 0
VODI 0 112 23 243 439 192 0 0
ODI 0 19 4 72 281 597 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 363 928 76 22
VCDI 0 1 1 61 400 5144 11942 19595
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11 3723 77 391 186 17 0 0
OW 0 336 30 255 251 25 0 0
VODI 0 119 23 245 425 210 0 0
ODI 0 25 4 57 228 479 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 377 931 83 20
VCDI 0 1 1 72 463 5251 11935 19597

Date: 2020-12-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 3156 81 251 54 0 0 0
OW 0 295 55 376 170 6 0 0
VODI 0 36 12 237 623 74 0 0
ODI 0 6 1 24 671 566 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 491 1420 90 14
VCDI 0 0 0 42 216 3571 9919 23406
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2999 96 405 274 26 0 0
OW 0 319 37 273 335 79 0 0
VODI 0 139 10 178 418 324 0 0
ODI 0 36 6 22 218 498 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 380 872 82 22
VCDI 0 0 0 51 600 3838 9920 23398

Date: 2020-12-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15 2437 78 261 109 0 0 0
OW 0 614 50 326 200 23 0 0
VODI 0 41 13 295 406 243 0 0
ODI 0 4 2 143 579 430 109 0
CDI 0 0 0 39 584 921 210 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 440 4187 6570 26530
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15 2410 85 384 266 57 0 0
OW 0 463 37 254 207 179 0 0
VODI 0 183 16 240 318 369 13 0
ODI 0 36 4 89 308 383 170 0
CDI 0 4 1 71 298 582 240 0
VCDI 0 0 0 33 921 4234 6466 26530

Date: 2020-12-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1158 70 604 288 12 0 0
OW 0 375 42 493 292 118 0 0
VODI 0 115 16 250 357 291 0 0
ODI 0 10 3 33 340 597 28 0
CDI 0 0 1 4 236 1134 179 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 234 5069 8029 25488
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1186 68 579 442 163 0 0
OW 0 260 37 449 268 246 6 0
VODI 0 141 21 298 337 442 62 0
ODI 0 69 5 51 283 518 139 0
CDI 0 2 1 6 104 796 206 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 313 5056 7823 25488


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