Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-12-03

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-11-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86068 18775 180 660 344 98 53 0
OW 182 1210 80 784 483 145 56 0
VODI 18 543 76 582 877 338 63 0
ODI 0 193 32 380 1295 596 81 0
CDI 0 104 19 295 985 1245 248 40
VCDI 0 14 11 191 1082 8396 18279 41947
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-11-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84978 18412 168 746 369 157 21 0
OW 37 1669 97 568 580 265 36 0
VODI 2 594 81 716 741 464 63 0
ODI 0 166 28 435 862 618 143 0
CDI 0 78 12 300 1163 1562 246 66
VCDI 0 46 12 189 1091 8159 22675 38433
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-12-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83512 19259 235 993 264 83 2 0
OW 31 803 108 916 455 22 5 0
VODI 0 302 55 663 1106 211 7 0
ODI 0 95 11 236 1294 1006 31 1
CDI 0 58 5 113 1277 1875 327 23
VCDI 0 19 1 88 899 9685 22824 38148
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-12-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84557 16720 213 771 473 96 17 0
OW 36 1236 110 870 505 37 11 0
VODI 0 374 56 704 1161 107 19 0
ODI 0 129 19 318 1094 611 37 12
CDI 0 28 13 218 1244 1702 90 114
VCDI 0 2 5 207 1563 8846 23075 39648
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84555 16835 223 871 507 103 24 0
OW 38 1056 107 787 447 44 8 0
VODI 0 422 48 692 1109 98 18 0
ODI 0 145 17 338 1091 577 41 0
CDI 0 27 20 195 1254 1626 78 137
VCDI 0 4 1 205 1632 8951 23080 39637

Date: 2020-12-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83003 16723 199 921 628 168 0 0
OW 35 1255 93 783 560 101 0 0
VODI 0 467 58 715 965 328 0 0
ODI 0 144 31 317 786 774 7 0
CDI 0 33 10 196 919 1391 106 50
VCDI 0 5 4 125 1180 9359 26191 38418
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83003 16963 222 1078 692 178 0 0
OW 35 988 69 614 511 88 0 0
VODI 0 479 59 736 935 348 0 0
ODI 0 154 28 281 710 657 8 0
CDI 0 32 13 201 929 1344 115 36
VCDI 0 11 4 147 1261 9506 26181 38432

Date: 2020-12-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81918 16822 210 762 428 155 0 0
OW 41 660 126 845 472 83 0 0
VODI 0 124 47 772 1243 177 4 0
ODI 0 13 12 228 1930 769 5 0
CDI 0 0 1 81 1165 2422 142 14
VCDI 0 0 0 56 486 7976 21443 45416
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81899 15954 227 1056 915 290 0 0
OW 60 952 64 512 672 188 12 0
VODI 0 592 62 537 1070 510 23 0
ODI 0 109 35 297 830 723 27 0
CDI 0 12 8 214 1026 1371 132 23
VCDI 0 0 0 128 1211 8500 21400 45407

Date: 2020-12-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81082 16571 213 708 444 132 0 0
OW 62 1090 137 710 391 99 0 0
VODI 0 226 68 785 906 373 4 0
ODI 0 25 16 437 1240 682 122 0
CDI 0 2 2 186 1338 1765 310 25
VCDI 0 0 0 21 854 7351 16954 51717
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81038 15910 237 993 776 282 0 0
OW 106 1138 69 434 468 323 9 0
VODI 0 653 69 537 725 578 43 0
ODI 0 184 43 379 730 706 232 0
CDI 0 27 16 384 856 1112 337 35
VCDI 0 2 2 120 1618 7401 16769 51707

Date: 2020-12-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81469 14590 195 1109 584 100 0 0
OW 54 1057 97 807 499 156 0 0
VODI 0 468 57 804 661 395 0 0
ODI 0 89 45 376 890 748 34 0
CDI 0 10 9 281 1019 1501 220 4
VCDI 0 0 0 55 1212 8789 16719 51945
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81408 13681 198 1249 900 330 0 0
OW 89 973 65 690 445 332 17 0
VODI 26 1003 66 572 594 606 81 0
ODI 0 389 40 386 654 648 192 0
CDI 0 112 19 293 776 1135 250 48
VCDI 0 56 15 242 1496 8638 16433 51901


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