Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2020-11-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-11-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86602 9069 71 378 262 87 0 0
OW 30 355 26 209 104 18 0 0
VODI 0 108 13 240 215 29 0 0
ODI 0 47 8 63 221 49 0 0
CDI 0 6 10 66 244 239 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 40 236 3400 4480 2174
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-11-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85670 9546 73 341 240 157 38 0
OW 28 289 44 316 120 13 11 0
VODI 0 130 18 185 253 82 5 0
ODI 0 22 6 104 219 69 4 0
CDI 0 6 8 38 255 252 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 36 179 2592 5043 2701
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-11-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84273 10827 75 341 193 111 2 0
OW 29 249 37 282 94 25 2 0
VODI 0 71 28 260 355 30 2 0
ODI 0 22 1 128 265 111 0 0
CDI 0 16 7 35 354 298 13 0
VCDI 0 0 2 41 194 2654 5094 2579
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-11-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83746 10930 74 262 143 74 41 0
OW 35 402 39 221 122 19 9 0
VODI 4 118 26 312 251 72 10 0
ODI 0 33 11 189 300 106 1 0
CDI 0 10 4 80 340 232 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 20 271 2332 5772 2486
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83747 11012 79 299 158 75 40 0
OW 34 317 29 194 130 22 8 0
VODI 4 118 31 299 222 77 11 0
ODI 0 37 9 190 299 118 2 0
CDI 0 9 5 84 335 205 4 0
VCDI 0 0 1 18 283 2338 5771 2486

Date: 2020-11-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84532 9561 72 325 220 94 40 0
OW 39 511 24 195 129 47 15 0
VODI 2 261 41 196 234 80 21 0
ODI 0 56 21 153 247 140 30 0
CDI 0 21 4 155 354 258 19 0
VCDI 0 12 7 68 446 3457 5264 1749
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84528 9670 73 372 240 96 39 0
OW 43 394 21 149 136 52 9 0
VODI 2 251 40 168 227 79 38 0
ODI 0 79 22 157 234 149 21 0
CDI 0 20 8 158 360 230 21 0
VCDI 0 8 5 88 433 3470 5261 1749

Date: 2020-11-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82222 11593 102 373 192 101 0 0
OW 29 238 42 256 134 58 1 0
VODI 0 111 26 298 259 26 5 0
ODI 0 27 9 152 333 150 5 0
CDI 0 5 4 65 368 538 56 0
VCDI 0 0 1 28 274 3129 6245 1645
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82222 11126 87 354 286 174 3 0
OW 29 439 23 172 113 35 9 0
VODI 0 279 34 228 246 87 16 0
ODI 0 97 22 194 167 178 35 0
CDI 0 30 9 124 302 442 76 0
VCDI 0 3 9 100 446 3086 6173 1645

Date: 2020-12-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81730 11391 113 614 349 106 21 0
OW 32 243 25 187 292 30 10 0
VODI 0 93 29 198 290 63 15 0
ODI 0 26 5 168 216 142 29 0
CDI 0 13 5 103 239 309 24 0
VCDI 0 0 0 48 598 2808 6080 2456
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81730 11061 95 459 327 166 56 0
OW 32 369 24 157 216 34 16 0
VODI 0 215 23 238 271 62 22 0
ODI 0 77 18 192 204 129 4 0
CDI 0 37 10 158 229 256 21 0
VCDI 0 7 7 114 737 2811 6060 2456

Date: 2020-12-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82004 10969 104 451 391 128 14 0
OW 35 336 27 172 212 28 12 0
VODI 0 190 31 209 267 52 31 0
ODI 0 58 18 192 156 92 38 0
CDI 0 17 9 137 225 203 51 0
VCDI 0 0 3 88 613 3287 5764 2486
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82004 10506 101 412 278 198 75 0
OW 35 469 17 128 203 32 17 0
VODI 0 335 29 167 289 44 32 0
ODI 0 158 17 153 217 61 20 0
CDI 0 75 12 218 206 156 2 0
VCDI 0 27 16 171 671 3299 5764 2486


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