Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-11-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-11-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92704 17159 164 809 344 87 0 0
OW 132 1419 68 618 451 36 0 0
VODI 4 532 63 610 716 178 0 0
ODI 0 188 17 280 767 423 40 0
CDI 0 85 18 212 848 1739 286 8
VCDI 0 19 6 106 726 11205 23362 30619
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-11-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88980 18107 169 934 858 163 38 0
OW 71 1322 95 968 556 110 11 0
VODI 1 521 75 671 825 392 15 0
ODI 0 106 20 355 779 450 19 0
CDI 0 17 11 174 794 1295 209 0
VCDI 0 0 0 76 672 10046 21061 36082
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-11-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86522 19885 163 843 385 147 2 0
OW 30 741 135 858 389 105 2 0
VODI 0 155 52 987 1136 357 2 0
ODI 0 43 6 355 1276 824 9 0
CDI 0 22 10 71 998 1688 250 32
VCDI 0 0 2 41 539 6470 21001 40515
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-11-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87122 18498 161 525 268 142 52 0
OW 123 1172 89 775 359 177 53 0
VODI 13 445 58 659 865 297 91 0
ODI 0 165 31 414 1272 562 152 0
CDI 0 93 18 260 913 1151 353 114
VCDI 0 0 0 127 1109 7938 19841 40591
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87148 18610 180 683 300 198 79 0
OW 91 1019 62 669 367 103 37 0
VODI 19 497 67 602 867 312 74 0
ODI 0 157 25 414 1141 577 157 0
CDI 0 88 22 265 962 1091 392 136
VCDI 0 2 1 127 1149 7986 19803 40569

Date: 2020-11-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87391 16780 166 667 414 95 40 0
OW 136 1427 86 649 570 213 33 0
VODI 26 564 81 677 737 377 67 0
ODI 0 157 45 420 1060 622 112 0
CDI 0 75 16 326 1119 1388 192 7
VCDI 0 27 10 203 1318 7425 20758 40572
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87451 17096 181 801 459 163 43 0
OW 96 1080 61 538 525 135 26 0
VODI 6 569 87 674 798 408 87 0
ODI 0 171 46 386 900 554 95 0
CDI 0 83 19 306 1259 1348 192 6
VCDI 0 31 10 237 1277 7512 20759 40573

Date: 2020-11-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84127 19586 185 616 223 101 0 0
OW 29 871 139 855 269 68 1 0
VODI 0 303 59 893 1001 172 5 0
ODI 0 106 11 307 1658 774 23 0
CDI 0 55 10 108 1166 2175 510 29
VCDI 0 38 9 49 717 8618 23305 37877
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84126 18675 192 865 488 226 4 0
OW 30 1314 73 476 465 269 35 0
VODI 0 616 84 686 822 617 60 0
ODI 0 206 29 415 862 679 146 0
CDI 0 104 13 236 1088 1467 498 30
VCDI 0 44 22 150 1309 8650 23101 37876

Date: 2020-12-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83691 18236 230 926 426 106 21 0
OW 32 1061 116 796 567 36 10 0
VODI 0 406 58 628 1045 220 15 0
ODI 0 112 8 240 1070 953 64 6
CDI 0 76 7 142 1232 1953 180 31
VCDI 0 10 6 121 1196 8504 23050 39461
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83685 17223 220 924 663 198 56 0
OW 38 1483 84 462 634 253 19 0
VODI 0 768 69 679 732 745 58 0
ODI 0 247 27 379 824 844 44 0
CDI 0 136 12 218 1094 1447 225 27
VCDI 0 44 13 191 1589 8285 22938 39471

Date: 2020-12-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83716 17122 183 751 440 128 14 0
OW 35 1243 117 929 465 36 12 0
VODI 0 417 54 785 1046 131 31 0
ODI 0 132 30 347 925 647 38 0
CDI 0 29 10 191 961 1398 128 66
VCDI 0 4 3 183 1462 10322 24570 37947
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83682 15992 189 877 514 229 75 0
OW 69 1376 56 471 594 173 17 0
VODI 0 1059 83 740 715 636 39 0
ODI 0 310 33 446 903 610 67 0
CDI 0 183 20 336 1018 1397 143 37
VCDI 0 27 16 316 1555 9617 24452 37976


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