Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2020-11-12

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-11-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90514 7555 42 165 153 40 0 0
OW 7 282 18 124 45 4 0 0
VODI 0 161 8 141 97 0 0 0
ODI 0 80 6 95 155 6 0 0
CDI 0 25 10 124 217 49 0 0
VCDI 0 3 1 58 370 2752 3965 1828
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-11-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88742 8924 34 203 134 89 0 0
OW 8 375 10 132 48 11 0 0
VODI 0 193 18 148 108 8 0 0
ODI 0 107 4 66 168 14 0 0
CDI 0 77 10 72 245 107 0 0
VCDI 0 2 5 134 341 2124 4889 1550
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-11-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88771 8817 64 197 105 23 0 0
OW 11 132 27 174 48 9 0 0
VODI 0 71 6 221 135 11 0 0
ODI 0 23 4 66 249 4 0 0
CDI 0 10 7 36 444 134 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 367 1843 4508 2573
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-11-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88432 8873 64 297 177 88 0 0
OW 14 265 11 105 59 33 0 0
VODI 0 167 22 127 133 28 0 0
ODI 0 62 17 129 117 23 0 0
CDI 0 17 9 143 189 154 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 53 561 4661 2465 1602
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88429 8871 63 314 198 106 0 0
OW 17 251 10 83 54 22 0 0
VODI 0 180 20 114 116 29 0 0
ODI 0 69 17 120 104 17 0 0
CDI 0 13 13 167 153 120 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 56 611 4693 2461 1602

Date: 2020-11-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89020 7814 65 271 202 86 0 0
OW 18 372 19 123 46 29 3 0
VODI 0 279 8 118 133 12 0 0
ODI 0 106 5 95 163 13 0 0
CDI 0 24 15 64 322 119 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 37 253 4017 3817 1430
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89020 7850 67 282 200 90 0 0
OW 18 329 17 114 49 26 3 0
VODI 0 260 7 110 116 11 0 0
ODI 0 126 5 84 166 14 0 0
CDI 0 30 16 89 295 85 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 29 293 4050 3816 1430

Date: 2020-11-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87573 9105 55 255 178 62 0 0
OW 20 306 24 194 38 15 0 0
VODI 0 130 22 313 138 18 1 0
ODI 0 39 4 93 281 70 1 0
CDI 0 14 8 40 305 282 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 63 300 4644 3934 574
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87573 8744 54 284 196 86 0 0
OW 20 370 23 205 78 16 2 0
VODI 0 247 7 147 162 26 0 0
ODI 0 149 10 88 137 37 0 0
CDI 0 77 14 102 171 187 2 0
VCDI 0 7 5 132 496 4739 3933 574

Date: 2020-11-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87379 8759 63 312 229 89 0 0
OW 23 282 18 181 55 22 0 0
VODI 0 173 23 203 116 31 0 0
ODI 0 57 10 88 207 55 1 0
CDI 0 19 5 66 286 220 9 0
VCDI 0 4 5 76 416 4781 3660 1177
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87370 8327 59 311 259 126 0 0
OW 32 431 15 153 42 20 0 0
VODI 0 301 21 144 135 39 1 0
ODI 0 117 9 104 132 53 0 0
CDI 0 79 7 73 178 200 5 0
VCDI 0 39 13 141 563 4760 3664 1177

Date: 2020-11-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86602 9069 71 378 262 87 0 0
OW 30 355 26 209 104 18 0 0
VODI 0 108 13 240 215 29 0 0
ODI 0 47 8 63 221 49 0 0
CDI 0 6 10 66 244 239 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 40 236 3400 4480 2174
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86502 8143 60 289 304 104 0 0
OW 129 582 17 172 40 30 0 0
VODI 1 397 14 121 149 41 0 0
ODI 0 187 9 129 168 37 0 0
CDI 0 146 12 105 173 169 0 0
VCDI 0 130 16 180 448 3441 4481 2174


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