Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2020-11-12

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-11-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8231 5784 66 370 105 0 0 0
OW 57 268 16 277 368 14 0 0
VODI 4 67 23 197 480 72 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 83 276 200 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 250 657 195 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 289 1996 6298 19215
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-11-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7718 5219 66 216 35 0 0 0
OW 49 619 48 412 362 45 0 0
VODI 10 97 10 146 566 123 1 0
ODI 0 15 8 96 277 266 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 58 234 352 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 189 3042 7152 18428
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-11-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7648 5324 56 184 13 0 0 0
OW 39 263 28 240 53 0 0 0
VODI 21 77 16 347 285 12 0 0
ODI 3 8 3 102 533 167 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 559 537 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 237 2496 7103 19503
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-11-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6669 5712 41 86 0 0 0 0
OW 29 571 26 180 34 1 0 0
VODI 2 230 29 301 196 5 0 0
ODI 0 18 7 122 328 131 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 46 423 383 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 406 2707 8256 18918
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6667 5752 42 104 4 0 0 0
OW 30 541 28 169 37 1 0 0
VODI 3 222 25 285 199 10 0 0
ODI 0 15 8 121 277 176 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 45 383 366 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 487 2674 8254 18918

Date: 2020-11-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5725 5067 80 430 25 0 0 0
OW 48 638 33 282 146 6 0 0
VODI 45 449 13 135 294 76 0 0
ODI 0 99 4 88 216 199 8 0
CDI 0 19 3 55 195 254 138 0
VCDI 0 4 2 42 498 3002 12088 15460
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5734 5257 89 526 54 0 0 0
OW 40 536 25 158 131 7 0 0
VODI 44 377 12 156 264 106 1 0
ODI 0 84 3 86 183 196 22 0
CDI 0 18 4 59 176 210 151 0
VCDI 0 4 2 47 566 3018 12060 15460

Date: 2020-11-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5345 5396 91 287 39 0 0 0
OW 91 259 30 355 154 0 0 0
VODI 0 171 5 233 561 1 0 0
ODI 0 21 6 81 653 86 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 263 515 21 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 244 2133 10682 18137
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5388 4921 89 478 316 0 0 0
OW 47 398 19 174 267 3 0 0
VODI 1 408 14 183 395 50 0 0
ODI 0 116 7 79 242 203 4 0
CDI 0 4 3 45 240 224 128 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 454 2255 10571 18137

Date: 2020-11-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4921 5154 74 287 37 0 0 0
OW 71 435 44 314 236 0 0 0
VODI 2 161 18 360 411 12 0 0
ODI 0 71 3 68 561 129 0 0
CDI 0 62 1 32 591 329 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 389 2695 7880 20516
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4941 4879 83 399 199 0 0 0
OW 51 318 18 214 328 47 0 0
VODI 2 419 24 214 444 112 0 0
ODI 0 203 9 126 365 173 2 0
CDI 0 64 6 88 272 213 37 0
VCDI 0 0 0 21 617 2620 7842 20516

Date: 2020-11-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4097 5282 63 338 82 0 0 0
OW 102 504 28 281 297 18 0 0
VODI 4 247 34 241 358 148 0 0
ODI 0 54 5 124 322 258 0 0
CDI 0 10 5 89 348 790 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 158 2253 7466 21854
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4111 5275 68 434 284 48 0 0
OW 86 346 23 163 218 295 0 0
VODI 6 237 24 206 231 326 0 0
ODI 0 165 8 91 278 261 5 3
CDI 0 74 12 124 285 335 108 58
VCDI 0 0 0 55 269 2202 7359 21793


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