Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-11-12

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-11-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101678 18024 189 1201 1101 98 0 0
OW 64 1364 103 1027 1397 703 0 0
VODI 4 488 68 601 1457 1204 63 0
ODI 0 87 10 285 839 1288 225 0
CDI 0 25 10 148 836 2464 836 0
VCDI 0 3 1 58 728 6868 17135 24368
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-11-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98512 17979 166 765 625 417 1 0
OW 57 1576 115 1289 1275 881 182 0
VODI 10 512 59 606 1359 1319 813 0
ODI 0 131 17 266 782 1136 717 0
CDI 0 77 10 170 646 1598 1053 0
VCDI 0 2 5 135 648 8813 20194 22130
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-11-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98208 18147 182 643 159 23 0 0
OW 50 764 134 914 262 13 1 0
VODI 21 185 41 1089 1082 151 84 0
ODI 3 31 7 273 1862 537 271 0
CDI 0 10 7 56 1921 2249 1015 46
VCDI 0 0 0 10 931 8439 21897 25330
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-11-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96627 17847 144 564 379 96 0 0
OW 43 1056 61 641 433 106 0 0
VODI 2 428 70 606 1233 303 18 0
ODI 0 80 24 324 965 874 186 0
CDI 0 17 9 196 852 2227 701 1
VCDI 0 0 0 58 1075 13632 20692 24478
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96622 17929 152 646 442 121 0 0
OW 47 972 57 538 402 97 0 0
VODI 3 429 61 595 1130 305 5 0
ODI 0 84 25 318 885 836 159 0
CDI 0 14 13 220 839 1797 672 9
VCDI 0 0 0 72 1239 14082 20761 24470

Date: 2020-11-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96843 15634 156 761 337 116 0 0
OW 66 1483 71 480 280 182 3 0
VODI 45 957 54 462 577 526 138 0
ODI 0 259 31 408 565 749 232 0
CDI 0 43 18 246 952 1226 711 59
VCDI 0 4 2 79 1380 11997 26531 22385
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96852 16041 171 896 324 125 0 0
OW 58 1175 61 320 309 181 3 0
VODI 44 825 48 459 492 537 165 0
ODI 0 278 27 354 529 667 248 0
CDI 0 57 23 319 827 1057 600 72
VCDI 0 4 2 88 1610 12229 26599 22372

Date: 2020-11-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95227 17765 156 554 217 62 0 0
OW 111 860 97 722 200 15 0 0
VODI 0 365 46 793 871 91 1 0
ODI 0 60 10 226 1344 444 9 0
CDI 0 14 8 70 940 2679 287 12
VCDI 0 0 0 67 762 11216 24385 26362
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95264 16502 149 771 557 117 0 0
OW 73 1083 51 397 388 185 2 0
VODI 1 943 44 430 641 423 33 0
ODI 0 403 40 313 489 887 132 3
CDI 0 119 25 292 672 1224 450 56
VCDI 0 14 8 229 1587 11671 24065 26315

Date: 2020-11-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95021 16607 162 632 266 89 0 0
OW 126 1054 75 595 292 22 0 0
VODI 2 549 56 672 595 121 2 0
ODI 0 212 23 275 934 516 55 0
CDI 0 95 12 222 1147 1594 383 45
VCDI 0 4 5 97 1207 12931 22159 28194
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94919 15406 146 713 458 159 0 0
OW 165 1145 43 375 370 146 34 0
VODI 65 1074 65 473 580 442 153 0
ODI 0 512 30 354 614 807 177 0
CDI 0 270 31 242 712 1439 366 25
VCDI 0 114 18 336 1707 12280 21869 28214

Date: 2020-11-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92704 17159 164 809 344 87 0 0
OW 132 1419 68 618 451 36 0 0
VODI 4 532 63 610 716 178 0 0
ODI 0 188 17 280 767 423 40 0
CDI 0 85 18 212 848 1739 286 8
VCDI 0 19 6 106 726 11205 23362 30619
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92618 15702 137 728 588 152 0 0
OW 215 1497 57 367 258 340 32 0
VODI 7 1100 57 526 389 486 167 0
ODI 0 544 31 392 669 566 303 9
CDI 0 365 29 272 821 1304 713 118
VCDI 0 194 25 350 1127 10820 22473 30500


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