Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2020-11-05

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-10-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91511 6520 64 237 128 2 0 0
OW 0 122 14 172 100 1 0 0
VODI 0 56 9 90 158 27 0 0
ODI 0 14 6 41 152 58 0 0
CDI 0 0 3 46 131 235 2 1
VCDI 0 0 0 11 159 1221 4044 3765
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-11-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90224 7771 59 228 101 16 0 0
OW 0 143 16 180 73 0 0 0
VODI 0 37 9 167 173 6 0 0
ODI 0 4 2 47 159 44 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 186 154 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 95 1085 3290 4803
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-11-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89924 8377 54 182 116 67 0 0
OW 1 109 23 190 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 35 5 208 111 0 0 0
ODI 0 7 1 77 184 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 43 240 91 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 206 1772 2691 4350
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-11-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90499 7639 40 156 210 44 0 0
OW 5 246 8 108 42 20 0 0
VODI 0 138 13 159 98 2 0 0
ODI 0 33 4 122 202 9 0 0
CDI 0 2 3 99 205 142 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 247 2594 3665 2336
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90498 7635 41 158 223 62 0 0
OW 6 242 6 95 33 2 0 0
VODI 0 146 14 169 87 2 0 0
ODI 0 29 4 120 201 13 0 0
CDI 0 6 1 96 221 167 2 0
VCDI 0 0 2 14 239 2565 3665 2336

Date: 2020-11-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89688 8180 38 223 126 71 0 0
OW 8 339 12 100 56 13 0 0
VODI 0 175 13 141 105 1 0 0
ODI 0 98 5 72 164 6 0 0
CDI 0 63 8 84 209 114 1 0
VCDI 0 14 4 113 315 2600 5036 905
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89688 8199 40 235 140 76 0 0
OW 8 299 9 90 49 8 0 0
VODI 0 194 13 126 103 2 0 0
ODI 0 89 6 89 128 6 0 0
CDI 0 67 6 75 255 144 24 0
VCDI 0 21 6 118 300 2569 5013 905

Date: 2020-11-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88195 9485 47 177 150 22 0 0
OW 10 199 21 181 42 14 0 0
VODI 0 90 10 224 107 11 0 0
ODI 0 42 4 123 186 10 0 0
CDI 0 30 11 120 420 225 0 0
VCDI 0 9 1 29 281 1713 5207 1704
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88196 9228 41 219 184 41 0 0
OW 9 333 12 114 66 5 0 0
VODI 0 222 21 179 113 7 0 0
ODI 0 48 10 154 134 15 0 0
CDI 0 17 4 109 236 109 5 0
VCDI 0 7 6 79 453 1818 5202 1704

Date: 2020-11-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88602 8837 62 258 128 50 0 0
OW 14 152 26 155 55 21 0 0
VODI 0 65 12 188 151 15 0 0
ODI 0 23 2 74 239 4 0 0
CDI 0 7 8 82 399 94 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 19 485 3497 3613 1763
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88604 8493 60 286 148 84 0 0
OW 12 280 10 102 63 2 0 0
VODI 0 214 22 167 146 3 0 0
ODI 0 73 9 113 251 3 0 0
CDI 0 23 7 70 350 98 0 0
VCDI 0 1 2 38 499 3491 3613 1763

Date: 2020-11-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88532 8542 61 307 187 55 0 0
OW 18 323 16 116 82 30 0 0
VODI 0 218 13 107 173 19 0 0
ODI 0 64 10 118 146 29 0 0
CDI 0 11 14 120 201 240 17 0
VCDI 0 0 0 42 397 4194 3138 1560
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88522 7821 55 289 215 88 0 0
OW 28 542 15 91 83 12 0 0
VODI 0 407 9 71 102 6 0 0
ODI 0 269 12 99 142 24 0 0
CDI 0 91 13 154 170 178 23 0
VCDI 0 28 10 106 474 4259 3132 1560


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