Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2020-11-05

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-10-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11233 5491 109 722 309 21 0 0
OW 7 57 13 460 723 108 4 0
VODI 0 10 2 66 586 425 6 0
ODI 0 0 0 32 166 425 64 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 109 530 311 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 76 947 4907 17926
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-11-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9314 6382 85 668 137 37 0 0
OW 10 83 18 326 813 284 4 0
VODI 0 9 2 61 569 674 44 0
ODI 0 0 0 18 227 540 105 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 120 493 262 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 72 955 4885 18660
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-11-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8782 6221 90 541 170 6 0 0
OW 26 158 22 247 236 11 0 0
VODI 1 10 2 53 519 68 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 459 755 21 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 204 1354 346 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 58 1236 4774 19494
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-11-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7944 6362 81 435 134 1 0 0
OW 43 200 16 224 373 27 0 0
VODI 4 70 18 211 411 118 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 26 264 354 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 280 742 431 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 420 1623 5092 19960
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7942 6381 88 551 262 10 0 0
OW 46 163 8 108 324 27 0 0
VODI 3 86 18 174 300 171 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 63 271 404 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 268 685 543 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 457 1568 4967 19960

Date: 2020-11-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8442 5074 69 219 50 0 0 0
OW 86 469 28 349 433 14 0 0
VODI 4 36 13 193 492 88 2 0
ODI 0 6 1 122 313 173 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 29 242 448 12 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 208 2678 7239 18334
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8454 5201 79 340 184 0 0 0
OW 73 344 17 200 379 20 0 0
VODI 5 29 14 196 399 125 2 0
ODI 0 11 1 105 299 174 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 58 232 462 60 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 245 2620 7191 18334

Date: 2020-11-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7765 5384 57 191 21 0 0 0
OW 38 194 38 285 39 0 0 0
VODI 15 56 18 385 328 27 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 65 692 274 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 411 677 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 74 2370 7361 19093
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7754 5014 69 365 133 1 0 0
OW 38 322 25 266 267 62 0 0
VODI 26 286 14 135 523 139 2 0
ODI 0 13 4 66 208 298 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 52 173 364 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 45 261 2484 7363 19093

Date: 2020-11-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7246 5571 57 150 2 0 0 0
OW 49 377 24 192 32 0 0 0
VODI 29 119 22 320 198 7 0 0
ODI 4 13 7 163 323 139 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 468 487 32 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 267 2766 7806 18961
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7249 5156 61 211 99 18 0 0
OW 39 439 22 207 96 46 0 0
VODI 36 433 19 237 271 158 14 0
ODI 4 43 7 102 327 231 9 0
CDI 0 9 1 50 202 341 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 53 295 2605 7805 18961

Date: 2020-11-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6286 5323 63 160 6 0 0 0
OW 36 641 27 234 73 6 0 0
VODI 12 350 19 174 299 20 0 0
ODI 0 59 10 102 253 203 1 0
CDI 0 1 0 34 278 373 14 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 501 1933 7732 20639
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6299 5191 59 139 75 43 0 0
OW 16 478 34 288 114 118 6 0
VODI 6 308 9 139 312 200 39 0
ODI 13 303 8 58 259 243 41 0
CDI 0 94 9 66 198 200 103 0
VCDI 0 0 0 18 452 1731 7558 20639


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