Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-11-05

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-10-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 108675 22472 289 1597 911 24 0 0
OW 7 1084 98 1326 1591 180 4 0
VODI 0 305 52 542 1562 635 6 0
ODI 0 20 18 249 680 806 64 0
CDI 0 0 3 99 488 1230 317 1
VCDI 0 0 0 11 314 3237 12616 25535
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-11-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 103653 24118 292 1626 754 91 0 0
OW 10 1090 112 1529 1877 607 4 0
VODI 0 111 36 782 1638 1409 44 0
ODI 0 4 2 231 863 1207 105 0
CDI 0 0 0 39 570 1175 349 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 210 2786 12053 27669
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-11-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101562 22890 332 1876 599 73 0 0
OW 27 628 87 1227 1170 17 0 0
VODI 1 70 10 548 2042 306 2 0
ODI 0 7 1 104 1910 1969 72 0
CDI 0 0 1 43 798 3401 769 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 280 3427 11729 29061
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-11-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101057 20009 271 1475 1168 181 0 0
OW 48 948 65 971 1357 796 0 0
VODI 4 296 56 636 1373 950 11 0
ODI 0 33 5 215 1028 1598 161 0
CDI 0 2 3 102 889 2660 1293 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 710 5204 14223 27242
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101054 19995 284 1726 1406 290 0 0
OW 52 882 51 673 1120 726 0 0
VODI 3 374 57 655 1330 1044 19 0
ODI 0 31 5 241 1033 1516 205 0
CDI 0 6 1 98 897 2605 1515 0
VCDI 0 0 2 14 739 5208 13949 27242

Date: 2020-11-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 100449 17560 184 978 808 309 0 0
OW 94 1579 97 1077 1422 957 48 0
VODI 4 464 55 636 1194 1680 226 0
ODI 0 127 11 287 771 1245 335 0
CDI 0 63 8 146 649 2104 748 0
VCDI 0 14 4 113 619 8981 20393 20609
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 100460 17787 199 1171 1157 366 0 0
OW 82 1215 76 806 1162 982 50 0
VODI 5 608 64 698 1063 1756 242 0
ODI 0 109 8 275 778 1115 335 0
CDI 0 67 6 156 676 2000 868 0
VCDI 0 21 6 131 627 9057 20255 20609

Date: 2020-11-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97814 18962 182 684 228 22 0 0
OW 48 677 110 931 242 74 1 0
VODI 15 161 46 1113 1135 299 155 0
ODI 0 43 4 270 2114 820 209 0
CDI 0 30 11 123 1297 3599 1718 38
VCDI 0 9 1 29 402 7272 22165 23995
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97801 18029 166 947 682 352 175 0
OW 50 1071 102 860 982 439 341 0
VODI 26 697 61 775 1429 1094 1101 0
ODI 0 61 14 283 826 1236 875 0
CDI 0 17 5 161 677 1381 994 65
VCDI 0 7 6 124 822 7584 20762 23968

Date: 2020-11-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97476 17999 184 667 275 54 0 0
OW 63 770 86 861 366 53 0 0
VODI 29 203 53 855 1218 180 23 0
ODI 4 36 9 299 1429 675 176 0
CDI 0 7 8 123 1459 2116 858 0
VCDI 0 0 0 26 1071 10260 22055 25022
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97440 16999 170 805 613 262 148 0
OW 92 1142 74 758 906 453 282 0
VODI 36 724 69 709 1181 868 921 1
ODI 4 117 17 336 1188 1104 1017 37
CDI 0 32 8 132 814 1667 1177 36
VCDI 0 1 2 91 1116 8984 19567 24948

Date: 2020-11-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96419 16968 162 576 357 63 0 0
OW 54 1280 65 554 367 162 0 0
VODI 12 717 45 430 917 637 8 0
ODI 0 150 37 313 733 968 129 0
CDI 0 12 14 248 628 2044 613 129
VCDI 0 0 0 63 1153 12337 20252 27432
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96364 15978 137 495 479 306 104 0
OW 95 1407 75 613 469 561 288 6
VODI 13 900 52 372 1023 1642 553 124
ODI 13 616 24 274 558 1189 739 419
CDI 0 198 25 281 493 1273 1399 580
VCDI 0 28 10 149 1133 11240 17919 26432


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