Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2020-10-29

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-11-02

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96 2480 62 231 10 0 0 0
OW 0 20 19 260 127 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 168 451 59 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 26 576 671 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 163 1420 358 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 31 831 8163 20672
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96 2362 49 262 140 48 0 0
OW 0 132 28 221 279 190 22 0
VODI 0 6 5 157 432 704 61 0
ODI 0 0 0 42 241 658 196 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 216 548 523 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 50 833 7721 20672

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 21 4 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 10 86 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 12 363 39 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 305 142 2135
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 21 9 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 76 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 5 223 34 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 13 153 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3 69 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 236 142 2135

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 17 8 68 2 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 34 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 22 84 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 131 85 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 65 440 34 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 485 3056 5423
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 17 8 88 21 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 26 61 10 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 8 107 66 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 48 156 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 43 215 44 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 21 572 3039 5423

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2633 1940 31 159 25 0 0 0
OW 1 17 7 102 58 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 38 175 62 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 203 109 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 5 89 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2634 1953 33 254 105 27 0 0
OW 0 4 5 43 215 95 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 2 139 104 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 7 34 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 691 3442 52 268 23 0 0 0
OW 0 348 47 432 67 0 0 0
VODI 0 17 7 221 307 21 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 19 506 248 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 29 433 58 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 691 3466 88 690 341 20 0 0
OW 0 325 12 157 253 107 0 0
VODI 0 16 6 93 318 272 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 20 220 17 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 77 33 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 6 18 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16 2405 53 250 12 0 0 0
OW 0 52 18 294 81 4 0 0
VODI 0 12 6 335 424 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 48 493 108 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 201 405 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 66 30 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16 2282 50 267 233 3 0 0
OW 0 158 16 267 200 2 0 0
VODI 0 29 11 363 401 23 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 27 306 210 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 74 260 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 90 32 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2415 2246 19 58 0 0 0 0
OW 0 74 7 146 48 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 2 140 231 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 24 438 113 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 188 127 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 33 10 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2412 2133 20 149 164 1 0 0
OW 3 141 7 123 326 83 0 0
VODI 0 50 1 70 392 155 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 24 48 19 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 6 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10362 949 11 8 0 0 0 0
OW 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10363 949 11 8 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6699 2553 13 38 0 0 0 0
OW 0 27 11 108 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 17 5 99 52 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 26 105 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 144 45 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 133 946 656 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6699 2517 11 46 5 0 0 0
OW 0 55 9 68 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 25 7 110 38 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 43 84 12 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 142 72 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 152 907 655 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11209 1505 13 87 102 34 0 0
OW 0 6 0 9 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 5 4 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11209 1501 13 87 112 34 0 0
OW 0 10 0 11 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2249 1958 29 248 47 0 0 0
OW 0 31 4 78 62 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 54 221 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 335 17 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 104 88 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 44 178 53 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2249 1853 27 287 112 0 0 0
OW 0 87 3 48 136 0 0 0
VODI 0 49 3 46 198 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 156 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 118 63 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 93 205 53 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5211 3182 20 46 1 0 0 0
OW 14 31 10 55 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5211 3078 15 37 0 0 0 0
OW 14 115 8 54 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 20 7 11 6 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18864 1321 1 2 1 0 0 0
OW 0 8 0 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 2 2 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18864 1316 1 2 1 0 0 0
OW 0 8 0 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 1 1 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 5 1 1 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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