Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2020-10-29

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-10-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92598 5953 52 351 161 0 0 0
OW 0 37 9 127 125 12 0 0
VODI 0 6 4 80 189 53 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 24 147 100 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 125 426 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 1332 5383 1775
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-10-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92329 6158 63 314 157 1 0 0
OW 0 39 13 137 123 12 0 0
VODI 0 11 5 88 172 57 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 28 136 106 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 124 461 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 583 3796 4167
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-10-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91647 6602 72 296 143 18 0 0
OW 0 35 14 156 92 11 0 0
VODI 0 6 4 83 212 36 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 15 155 103 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 98 400 95 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 359 4032 4411
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-10-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91387 6769 63 235 127 4 0 0
OW 0 105 14 174 82 6 0 0
VODI 0 48 4 104 139 35 0 0
ODI 0 11 7 43 148 63 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 40 126 187 21 2
VCDI 0 0 0 15 141 1194 3576 4228
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91387 6776 63 247 133 4 0 0
OW 0 105 14 171 79 6 0 0
VODI 0 42 4 96 138 37 0 0
ODI 0 10 7 43 148 69 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 41 121 227 63 2
VCDI 0 0 0 13 144 1146 3534 4228

Date: 2020-10-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91336 6657 54 230 125 2 0 0
OW 0 138 15 165 89 0 0 0
VODI 0 26 7 139 158 25 0 0
ODI 0 4 4 49 152 52 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 160 201 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 121 1172 3243 4737
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91336 6618 54 230 124 2 0 0
OW 0 171 17 163 97 1 0 0
VODI 0 33 6 148 149 20 0 0
ODI 0 3 3 43 157 53 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 27 151 210 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 127 1166 3242 4737

Date: 2020-11-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90135 8083 58 229 104 34 0 0
OW 1 71 17 215 40 0 0 0
VODI 0 17 6 194 140 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 41 226 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 212 128 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 164 1374 2910 4670
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90136 7914 49 208 118 34 0 0
OW 0 177 15 172 64 0 0 0
VODI 0 80 15 221 144 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 71 154 32 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 22 213 143 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 193 1336 2909 4670

Date: 2020-11-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90272 7955 41 201 179 31 0 0
OW 5 209 12 114 44 3 0 0
VODI 0 70 22 209 76 0 0 0
ODI 0 10 6 131 177 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 66 241 137 15 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 154 1988 4325 2401
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90277 7933 32 151 192 34 0 0
OW 0 188 22 142 20 0 0 0
VODI 0 114 21 250 114 0 0 0
ODI 0 9 5 144 183 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 32 237 170 17 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 125 1956 4323 2401

Date: 2020-11-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90514 7555 42 165 153 40 0 0
OW 7 282 18 124 45 4 0 0
VODI 0 161 8 141 97 0 0 0
ODI 0 80 6 95 155 6 0 0
CDI 0 25 10 124 217 49 0 0
VCDI 0 3 1 58 370 2752 3965 1828
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90516 7412 36 174 181 44 0 0
OW 5 369 13 65 28 0 0 0
VODI 0 173 19 154 62 0 0 0
ODI 0 95 8 136 183 0 0 0
CDI 0 45 6 111 258 41 0 0
VCDI 0 12 3 67 325 2766 3965 1828


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