Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2020-10-29

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-10-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14124 5632 49 232 36 0 0 0
OW 6 563 47 358 124 3 0 0
VODI 0 81 25 421 349 26 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 70 756 89 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 574 490 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 285 3978 5512 12022
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-10-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12487 6319 71 334 129 0 0 0
OW 0 615 57 389 237 15 0 0
VODI 0 34 20 286 656 125 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 31 476 396 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 401 707 44 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 204 1987 6023 13814
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-10-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11844 6927 99 563 130 0 0 0
OW 0 87 21 336 216 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 6 243 434 23 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 36 546 291 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 206 1148 64 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 36 1177 5100 16322
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-10-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11581 5943 121 734 206 39 0 0
OW 0 82 22 386 587 66 0 0
VODI 0 4 1 99 583 223 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 25 242 385 24 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 113 802 189 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 1094 5030 17261
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11578 5907 131 861 271 24 0 0
OW 3 116 11 279 475 66 0 0
VODI 0 6 2 80 645 212 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 19 215 430 15 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 118 742 156 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 29 1135 5072 17261

Date: 2020-10-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9782 6312 94 685 244 42 0 0
OW 4 35 14 329 954 136 29 0
VODI 0 7 1 74 688 470 14 0
ODI 0 0 0 25 186 507 56 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 98 515 319 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 86 755 4955 18434
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9785 6290 92 811 419 72 0 0
OW 1 57 16 187 685 120 21 0
VODI 0 7 1 92 808 417 24 0
ODI 0 0 0 27 162 523 57 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 97 560 270 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 85 733 5001 18434

Date: 2020-11-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8922 6482 84 515 96 4 0 0
OW 15 70 23 269 149 8 0 0
VODI 0 7 2 95 568 86 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 778 672 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 209 1620 200 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 47 1084 5019 18833
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8923 6400 85 686 296 43 0 0
OW 14 127 15 167 548 265 0 0
VODI 0 27 8 23 500 917 50 0
ODI 0 5 1 3 224 633 118 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 164 501 223 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 115 1115 4837 18833

Date: 2020-11-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8119 6497 84 501 179 13 0 0
OW 28 213 25 217 331 19 0 0
VODI 2 29 11 121 420 100 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 31 264 505 57 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 335 753 526 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 331 1318 4367 20453
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8124 6409 92 589 427 31 0 0
OW 24 190 5 104 308 158 4 0
VODI 1 131 15 157 333 820 143 0
ODI 0 9 8 36 180 503 432 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 238 333 449 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 374 863 3922 20453

Date: 2020-11-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8231 5784 66 370 105 0 0 0
OW 57 268 16 277 368 14 0 0
VODI 4 67 23 197 480 72 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 83 276 200 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 250 657 195 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 289 1996 6298 19215
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8238 5575 71 492 344 3 0 0
OW 54 402 9 141 441 109 0 0
VODI 0 121 13 113 232 354 43 0
ODI 0 22 13 142 254 469 478 2
CDI 0 0 0 44 228 371 603 42
VCDI 0 0 0 1 269 1633 5369 19171


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