Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-10-29

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-10-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119791 19846 166 759 220 0 0 0
OW 11 1452 115 812 391 33 0 0
VODI 0 179 49 758 885 183 0 0
ODI 0 14 3 124 1201 397 35 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 781 1426 121 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 299 5990 14283 16703
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-10-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115425 21210 195 977 378 2 0 0
OW 58 2426 147 902 574 91 0 0
VODI 0 243 52 695 1134 338 11 0
ODI 0 13 3 136 847 720 105 0
CDI 0 1 4 14 576 1550 314 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 208 2693 13134 21872
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-10-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 113237 23768 295 1307 291 18 0 0
OW 1 691 97 967 484 12 0 0
VODI 0 89 19 618 1070 90 0 0
ODI 0 4 0 95 1066 566 1 0
CDI 0 0 1 5 417 2107 211 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 42 1843 12846 24790
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-10-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 110649 22824 291 1438 473 43 0 0
OW 0 1118 127 1341 1048 76 0 0
VODI 0 171 34 653 1395 419 0 0
ODI 0 24 13 142 790 678 24 0
CDI 0 2 2 48 499 1331 286 2
VCDI 0 0 0 15 177 3113 12264 25538
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 110627 22621 318 1739 578 28 0 0
OW 22 1226 97 1023 972 72 0 0
VODI 0 247 35 654 1380 377 0 0
ODI 0 40 14 149 765 766 15 0
CDI 0 4 3 56 489 1310 273 2
VCDI 0 1 0 16 198 3107 12286 25538

Date: 2020-10-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106312 23158 250 1663 858 45 0 0
OW 4 1038 108 1378 1871 286 29 0
VODI 0 288 47 672 1874 740 14 0
ODI 0 14 14 292 698 982 56 0
CDI 0 0 0 77 516 1199 332 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 310 3032 11986 26897
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106296 23061 264 1854 1078 140 0 0
OW 20 936 86 1018 1460 207 21 0
VODI 0 470 52 819 2019 643 24 0
ODI 0 31 17 317 780 1010 57 0
CDI 0 0 0 76 468 1320 293 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 322 2964 12022 26897

Date: 2020-11-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102305 23998 312 1463 244 38 0 0
OW 16 614 123 1519 486 12 0 0
VODI 0 57 23 1085 1955 166 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 144 2797 1441 16 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 911 3410 492 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 248 2821 12104 28230
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102304 23427 326 2177 1255 142 0 0
OW 17 1035 88 1019 1504 563 22 0
VODI 0 202 41 864 2037 1553 95 0
ODI 0 5 3 139 923 1477 233 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 602 1304 602 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 320 2849 11660 28230

Date: 2020-11-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 100967 21604 297 1872 1023 84 0 0
OW 33 758 71 1045 1550 197 0 0
VODI 2 134 46 563 1574 678 0 0
ODI 0 10 6 166 1198 1961 182 0
CDI 0 0 0 83 925 2934 1135 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 504 3950 13137 28356
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 100967 21174 281 1733 1690 274 1 0
OW 34 1024 83 1098 1583 1005 56 0
VODI 1 290 42 678 1656 2296 366 0
ODI 0 18 13 185 718 1673 839 0
CDI 0 0 1 33 597 1369 1031 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 530 3187 12161 28356

Date: 2020-11-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101678 18024 189 1201 1101 98 0 0
OW 64 1364 103 1027 1397 703 0 0
VODI 4 488 68 601 1457 1204 63 0
ODI 0 87 10 285 839 1288 225 0
CDI 0 25 10 148 836 2464 836 0
VCDI 0 3 1 58 728 6868 17135 24368
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101658 17828 198 1291 1375 516 23 0
OW 88 1653 106 867 1338 1143 148 0
VODI 0 336 47 635 1768 2115 579 0
ODI 0 117 21 304 672 1866 1113 2
CDI 0 45 6 155 595 1189 1401 42
VCDI 0 12 3 68 610 5796 14995 24324


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