Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2020-10-22

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-10-26

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 116 4730 104 398 75 0 0 0
OW 0 156 42 505 157 3 0 0
VODI 0 8 6 381 606 32 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 19 826 203 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 156 1276 78 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 607 8058 18358
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 116 4221 60 365 142 2 0 0
OW 0 554 60 376 227 40 0 0
VODI 0 119 30 497 836 222 1 0
ODI 0 0 2 64 430 422 25 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 168 671 215 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 764 7895 18358

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 370 14 86 6 0 0 0
OW 0 39 13 46 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 2 49 13 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 46 26 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 21 254 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 359 816 957
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 267 13 89 6 0 0 0
OW 0 142 14 51 11 2 0 0
VODI 0 2 2 44 39 67 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 17 19 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 19 145 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 406 812 957

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 344 12 26 1 0 0 0
OW 0 31 12 61 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 4 67 131 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 20 366 62 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 107 722 26 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 638 3696 3626
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 348 18 59 25 0 0 0
OW 0 33 9 65 128 13 0 0
VODI 0 1 1 47 226 97 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 62 217 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 84 253 123 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 100 845 3584 3626

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3583 1864 12 119 13 0 0 0
OW 0 9 4 33 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3583 1871 15 116 18 0 0 0
OW 0 2 1 37 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4441 2484 29 84 5 0 0 0
OW 0 16 4 64 38 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 1 28 44 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4375 2344 16 42 2 0 0 0
OW 65 143 14 106 76 0 0 0
VODI 1 14 4 26 8 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 6 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2422 2511 18 44 0 0 0 0
OW 0 107 9 51 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 41 1 29 21 0 0 0
ODI 0 6 3 28 26 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 2 1 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2398 1896 11 10 0 0 0 0
OW 24 499 4 45 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 253 12 50 12 0 0 0
ODI 0 12 2 27 21 0 0 0
CDI 0 5 2 12 17 4 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3300 2549 27 130 31 0 0 0
OW 6 195 5 37 36 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 0 3 3 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3264 2626 31 159 53 0 0 0
OW 42 125 1 9 16 1 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 2 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10464 856 9 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10464 856 9 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6542 2560 21 119 34 3 0 0
OW 0 18 10 116 62 4 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 41 121 29 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 102 59 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 42 378 14 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 229 1064 126
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6542 2576 29 199 95 15 0 0
OW 0 2 2 57 89 24 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 21 111 56 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 51 111 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 15 346 43 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 150 1034 126

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11470 1322 12 79 90 12 0 0
OW 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11473 1322 12 79 90 12 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3579 1645 27 115 21 0 0 0
OW 0 5 0 67 13 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 46 33 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 7 73 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 40 4 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 15 86 17 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3579 1542 17 75 11 0 0 0
OW 0 101 9 83 22 2 0 0
VODI 0 7 1 59 67 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 17 29 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 45 6 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 21 84 17 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6043 2512 15 17 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6043 2510 15 17 0 0 0 0
OW 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19994 205 2 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19994 205 2 8 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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