Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2020-10-22

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-10-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92491 6162 64 482 109 0 0 0
OW 0 46 6 86 167 0 0 0
VODI 0 18 6 39 262 13 0 0
ODI 0 5 0 29 182 74 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 17 154 164 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 73 1967 3516 2964
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-10-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93003 5716 49 379 120 3 0 0
OW 0 39 5 88 145 10 0 0
VODI 0 24 5 40 209 39 0 0
ODI 0 7 2 21 145 96 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 19 84 245 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 47 1561 4712 2275
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-10-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92682 5953 58 355 123 0 0 0
OW 0 31 8 128 114 4 0 0
VODI 0 10 3 53 215 24 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 20 153 109 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 104 382 12 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 1114 4881 2557
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-10-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92851 5726 55 350 153 4 0 0
OW 0 34 13 127 120 13 0 0
VODI 0 7 3 72 206 43 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 20 165 95 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 128 353 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 24 1504 4765 2258
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92851 5738 61 363 186 7 0 0
OW 0 22 8 130 103 14 0 0
VODI 0 7 2 57 205 49 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 16 153 131 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 123 324 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 26 1487 4768 2258

Date: 2020-10-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92536 5987 56 330 157 0 0 0
OW 0 43 17 135 124 19 0 0
VODI 0 7 4 78 170 60 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 20 141 125 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 124 463 16 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 635 4222 3621
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92510 5999 65 363 178 2 0 0
OW 26 28 9 120 120 14 0 0
VODI 0 10 3 62 173 71 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 18 133 137 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 106 463 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 615 4225 3621

Date: 2020-10-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91920 6449 61 287 124 15 0 0
OW 3 35 17 183 84 4 0 0
VODI 0 3 1 100 186 29 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 14 197 66 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 116 495 14 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 523 3871 4301
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91923 6370 65 354 191 27 0 0
OW 0 110 11 124 115 24 0 0
VODI 0 7 3 75 176 56 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 30 119 139 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 92 422 43 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 15 464 3841 4301

Date: 2020-10-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91589 6618 60 253 141 6 0 0
OW 0 87 14 188 72 5 0 0
VODI 0 17 8 110 154 30 0 0
ODI 0 3 1 43 164 63 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 147 232 20 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 69 837 3625 4529
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91589 6556 66 363 211 16 0 0
OW 0 141 10 125 120 32 0 0
VODI 0 26 6 65 151 63 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 39 106 107 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 97 231 27 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 62 724 3618 4530

Date: 2020-10-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91511 6520 64 237 128 2 0 0
OW 0 122 14 172 100 1 0 0
VODI 0 56 9 90 158 27 0 0
ODI 0 14 6 41 152 58 0 0
CDI 0 0 3 46 131 235 2 1
VCDI 0 0 0 11 159 1221 4044 3765
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91511 6400 69 334 226 5 0 0
OW 0 191 11 97 139 21 0 0
VODI 0 107 8 93 175 57 0 0
ODI 0 14 7 32 98 90 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 35 74 190 15 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 116 1181 4031 3766


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