Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-10-22

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-10-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123705 19279 210 1320 311 5 0 0
OW 14 739 80 753 665 30 0 0
VODI 17 296 47 392 1066 181 0 0
ODI 0 31 8 179 873 495 5 0
CDI 0 1 2 76 470 1333 404 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 347 5462 16529 11718
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-10-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 124764 17248 165 877 332 41 0 0
OW 15 943 112 712 680 67 0 0
VODI 19 153 39 477 1205 336 2 0
ODI 0 41 7 113 717 672 47 0
CDI 0 4 4 60 344 1220 251 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 219 4204 19890 11060
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-10-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121537 19983 183 740 213 0 0 0
OW 16 627 89 727 260 12 0 0
VODI 30 74 22 723 1015 73 0 0
ODI 0 3 4 104 1572 342 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 727 1744 22 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 82 4120 16320 15675
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-10-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121146 19223 170 746 252 6 0 0
OW 4 1218 104 638 358 25 0 0
VODI 0 176 45 818 801 127 0 0
ODI 0 9 0 113 1254 433 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 851 1366 28 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 163 5249 14044 17661
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121138 19527 180 807 342 8 0 0
OW 12 936 93 553 267 32 0 0
VODI 0 142 44 810 732 109 0 0
ODI 0 21 2 143 1051 388 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 989 1176 16 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 298 5493 14056 17661

Date: 2020-10-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117871 20418 167 834 259 1 0 0
OW 57 1875 128 910 472 72 3 0
VODI 0 186 53 661 1116 249 24 0
ODI 0 10 4 106 891 693 96 0
CDI 0 3 0 21 525 1615 261 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 172 3765 14557 18973
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117827 20937 191 961 339 7 0 0
OW 101 1302 115 793 388 50 0 0
VODI 0 237 41 629 1089 241 19 0
ODI 0 9 4 123 818 547 51 0
CDI 0 7 1 26 584 1479 223 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 217 4071 14648 18973

Date: 2020-10-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 113814 23952 302 1223 276 15 0 0
OW 9 576 99 984 337 9 0 0
VODI 0 67 14 645 972 71 0 0
ODI 0 6 3 81 1444 355 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 368 2635 121 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 30 1919 13651 23067
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 113691 22584 248 1220 442 29 0 0
OW 131 1603 114 829 580 82 0 0
VODI 1 397 50 746 1300 448 3 0
ODI 0 12 4 116 616 771 39 0
CDI 0 5 2 15 348 1425 388 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 141 2249 13342 23067

Date: 2020-10-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 112749 22801 275 1201 393 9 0 0
OW 24 1051 110 1164 645 29 0 0
VODI 0 157 32 662 1067 246 0 0
ODI 0 14 4 127 862 591 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 23 495 1685 151 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 126 2817 12133 25403
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 112645 21109 240 1141 507 35 0 0
OW 122 2058 99 918 504 87 0 0
VODI 6 809 70 886 1305 535 8 0
ODI 0 45 12 204 747 838 59 0
CDI 0 2 1 26 408 1106 272 1
VCDI 0 0 0 2 117 2776 11945 25403

Date: 2020-10-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 108675 22472 289 1597 911 24 0 0
OW 7 1084 98 1326 1591 180 4 0
VODI 0 305 52 542 1562 635 6 0
ODI 0 20 18 249 680 806 64 0
CDI 0 0 3 99 488 1230 317 1
VCDI 0 0 0 11 314 3237 12616 25535
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 108628 20863 223 1303 1000 82 3 0
OW 45 2053 116 1192 1214 175 2 0
VODI 9 871 93 977 1962 734 9 0
ODI 0 94 27 251 675 1156 37 0
CDI 0 0 1 95 441 1012 342 14
VCDI 0 0 0 6 254 2953 12614 25522


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