Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2020-10-15

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-10-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94360 5477 36 156 11 0 0 0
OW 0 90 19 166 71 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 1 151 170 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 47 186 67 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 166 188 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 145 1328 3231 2982
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-10-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94022 5300 51 337 52 0 0 0
OW 0 30 4 158 141 8 0 0
VODI 0 4 6 57 237 36 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 22 189 97 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 95 160 31 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 35 1274 3749 3001
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-10-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92944 5955 58 435 153 0 0 0
OW 0 22 10 68 197 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 2 39 281 36 0 0
ODI 0 3 0 13 158 170 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 87 313 17 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 1429 3330 3359
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-10-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92530 6137 62 443 215 0 0 0
OW 0 51 6 38 204 4 0 0
VODI 0 13 7 33 240 62 0 0
ODI 0 4 1 20 140 144 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 67 304 17 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 20 1221 3619 3490
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92530 6141 62 442 247 0 0 0
OW 0 44 6 39 210 4 0 0
VODI 0 15 7 32 208 58 0 0
ODI 0 5 1 21 125 131 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 74 306 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 22 1236 3625 3490

Date: 2020-10-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93108 5576 56 394 171 0 0 0
OW 0 35 3 67 175 3 0 0
VODI 0 22 6 30 203 58 0 0
ODI 0 4 2 24 130 109 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 20 87 244 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 52 1658 4995 1863
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93085 5572 56 409 222 0 0 0
OW 23 34 3 48 144 15 0 0
VODI 0 26 6 34 179 57 0 0
ODI 0 5 1 24 123 105 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 19 90 216 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 60 1679 4995 1863

Date: 2020-10-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92677 6018 52 335 100 0 0 0
OW 0 37 10 130 106 5 0 0
VODI 0 8 3 53 214 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 19 175 88 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 120 370 18 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 1138 4537 2858
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92666 5979 54 370 173 4 0 0
OW 11 46 3 84 122 11 0 0
VODI 0 27 5 42 155 61 0 0
ODI 0 9 3 21 109 107 0 0
CDI 0 2 1 21 114 210 14 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 50 1224 4541 2858

Date: 2020-10-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92646 5956 60 335 162 1 0 0
OW 0 40 10 113 119 6 0 0
VODI 0 5 4 67 208 30 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 22 162 93 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 124 383 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 1376 4189 2973
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92646 5884 55 322 206 8 0 0
OW 0 68 9 92 110 11 0 0
VODI 0 39 6 54 156 56 0 0
ODI 0 10 3 37 107 105 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 33 136 275 17 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 73 1434 4173 2973

Date: 2020-10-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92598 5953 52 351 161 0 0 0
OW 0 37 9 127 125 12 0 0
VODI 0 6 4 80 189 53 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 24 147 100 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 125 426 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 1332 5383 1775
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92598 5830 50 322 187 4 0 0
OW 0 110 6 81 105 10 0 0
VODI 0 43 7 82 124 61 0 0
ODI 0 11 0 49 93 110 0 0
CDI 0 2 2 38 135 280 35 0
VCDI 0 0 0 17 117 1458 5358 1775


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