Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2020-10-15

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-10-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18080 6146 56 153 70 2 0 0
OW 5 195 33 276 260 43 0 0
VODI 0 31 10 146 250 148 8 0
ODI 0 0 0 30 261 159 37 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 129 365 108 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 1357 3716 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-10-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18039 5884 43 132 50 4 0 0
OW 9 329 43 396 184 34 0 0
VODI 0 56 11 101 299 187 11 0
ODI 0 2 3 52 182 211 59 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 82 380 163 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 1076 4046 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-10-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16587 7483 97 372 44 0 0 0
OW 10 72 31 267 129 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 1 174 280 44 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 314 141 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 119 497 138 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 2447 2810 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-10-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16887 6795 70 308 78 0 0 0
OW 13 241 42 324 211 3 0 0
VODI 8 15 10 142 319 89 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 24 256 161 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 99 408 120 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 1519 3901 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16884 6798 92 432 130 0 0 0
OW 15 229 21 232 208 5 0 0
VODI 9 24 10 106 325 85 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 29 195 171 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 95 382 92 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 32 1537 3935 0

Date: 2020-10-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17263 6192 45 133 20 0 0 0
OW 9 484 44 285 186 0 0 0
VODI 22 28 19 190 451 45 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 16 329 166 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 107 371 110 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 1355 4191 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17259 6275 60 258 121 0 0 0
OW 15 396 35 192 192 0 0 0
VODI 20 33 13 148 428 73 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 22 225 185 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 106 276 112 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 35 1403 4185 0

Date: 2020-10-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16493 6481 62 128 12 0 0 0
OW 12 277 44 270 61 0 0 0
VODI 29 6 2 235 408 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 7 630 157 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 151 754 18 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 15 1049 4580 193
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16501 6410 57 184 141 9 0 0
OW 12 339 44 296 219 24 0 0
VODI 21 15 7 136 471 138 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 18 201 234 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 129 235 80 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 116 1328 4513 193

Date: 2020-10-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14526 7760 65 166 29 0 0 0
OW 8 447 48 270 103 3 0 0
VODI 30 19 6 220 415 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 417 178 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 102 653 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 914 4571 1107
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14525 7908 68 213 82 1 0 0
OW 9 300 41 291 290 12 0 0
VODI 14 18 10 147 440 223 0 0
ODI 16 0 0 13 149 328 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 87 302 31 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 20 896 4539 1107

Date: 2020-10-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13069 8261 65 176 23 0 0 0
OW 5 852 59 327 142 18 0 0
VODI 0 92 20 257 347 104 0 0
ODI 0 14 3 30 298 208 35 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 82 510 111 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 680 3388 2906
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13062 8745 84 307 62 1 0 0
OW 12 401 40 293 269 31 0 0
VODI 0 56 19 143 373 333 81 0
ODI 0 7 3 41 117 334 64 0
CDI 0 8 1 4 62 277 111 0
VCDI 0 2 0 2 9 544 3278 2906


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