Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2020-10-15

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-10-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15310 7769 68 353 233 0 0 0
OW 0 393 38 386 335 79 0 0
VODI 0 131 41 502 595 335 9 0
ODI 0 6 3 125 718 533 63 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 241 1152 702 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 10 856 8331 6543
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-10-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14559 7907 71 283 159 22 0 0
OW 0 372 42 337 363 203 10 0
VODI 0 86 20 265 599 413 53 0
ODI 0 9 4 96 598 701 111 0
CDI 0 8 0 4 230 1087 430 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 46 1431 8670 6677
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-10-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15450 6394 87 517 73 0 0 0
OW 0 291 27 280 210 7 0 0
VODI 0 34 18 256 441 83 0 0
ODI 0 6 1 72 682 268 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 285 1599 492 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 19 1384 6763 10119
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-10-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13772 7025 102 669 202 14 0 0
OW 0 429 32 248 321 71 0 0
VODI 0 147 31 192 366 195 17 0
ODI 0 9 3 140 280 367 81 0
CDI 0 0 1 23 225 739 741 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 163 1018 7692 10551
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13771 7103 110 799 340 19 0 0
OW 1 344 26 126 280 62 2 0
VODI 0 157 22 149 306 205 26 0
ODI 0 6 11 175 227 414 87 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 192 562 524 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 212 1142 7892 10551

Date: 2020-10-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14356 6078 73 452 164 12 0 0
OW 0 394 34 379 399 29 0 0
VODI 0 150 31 258 437 119 0 0
ODI 0 27 8 92 355 271 2 0
CDI 0 2 1 24 218 769 104 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 212 1562 10741 8109
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14355 6037 90 678 445 22 0 0
OW 1 428 15 200 243 47 0 0
VODI 0 145 29 179 403 138 0 0
ODI 0 41 12 132 231 372 8 0
CDI 0 0 1 15 220 547 136 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 243 1636 10703 8109

Date: 2020-10-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14040 6207 59 262 118 6 0 0
OW 0 245 40 311 80 25 0 0
VODI 0 49 21 424 417 43 0 0
ODI 0 2 3 38 951 121 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 166 1172 39 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 86 1394 8464 11082
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14033 6163 88 606 587 82 0 0
OW 7 234 10 168 277 90 0 0
VODI 0 87 18 133 371 267 9 0
ODI 0 19 4 113 235 344 32 0
CDI 0 0 3 16 178 444 130 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 170 1534 8332 11082

Date: 2020-10-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14041 6057 57 188 94 0 0 0
OW 0 407 34 272 68 26 0 0
VODI 0 84 23 490 282 50 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 126 723 129 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 467 650 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 85 2057 6510 12921
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13984 6204 81 528 434 38 0 0
OW 57 257 16 201 217 66 0 0
VODI 0 79 17 204 422 141 0 0
ODI 0 9 2 131 305 266 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 33 206 509 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 135 1892 6500 12921

Date: 2020-10-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14124 5632 49 232 36 0 0 0
OW 6 563 47 358 124 3 0 0
VODI 0 81 25 421 349 26 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 70 756 89 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 574 490 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 285 3978 5512 12022
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14047 5838 73 536 148 1 0 0
OW 81 398 36 295 398 12 0 0
VODI 2 39 11 165 451 173 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 69 325 288 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 359 362 15 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 443 3750 5497 12022


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