Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-10-15

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-10-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 127750 19392 160 662 314 2 0 0
OW 5 678 90 828 666 122 0 0
VODI 0 177 52 799 1015 499 17 0
ODI 0 6 4 202 1165 759 100 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 536 1705 823 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 163 3541 15278 9525
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-10-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 126620 19091 165 752 261 26 0 0
OW 9 731 89 891 688 245 10 0
VODI 0 146 37 423 1135 636 64 0
ODI 0 11 7 170 969 1009 171 0
CDI 0 8 0 10 407 1627 624 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 92 3781 16465 9678
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-10-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 124981 19832 242 1324 270 0 0 0
OW 10 385 68 615 536 7 0 0
VODI 0 41 21 469 1002 163 0 0
ODI 0 9 1 94 1154 579 19 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 491 2409 647 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 34 5260 12903 13478
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-10-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123189 19957 234 1420 495 14 0 0
OW 13 721 80 610 736 78 0 0
VODI 8 175 48 367 925 346 17 0
ODI 0 13 5 184 676 672 92 0
CDI 0 0 1 36 391 1451 878 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 205 3758 15212 14041
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123185 20042 264 1673 717 19 0 0
OW 16 617 53 397 698 71 2 0
VODI 9 196 39 287 839 348 26 0
ODI 0 11 12 225 547 716 92 0
CDI 0 0 0 34 361 1250 627 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 266 3915 15452 14041

Date: 2020-10-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 124727 17846 174 979 355 12 0 0
OW 9 913 81 731 760 32 0 0
VODI 22 200 56 478 1091 222 0 0
ODI 0 31 10 132 814 546 9 0
CDI 0 3 1 44 412 1384 215 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 278 4575 19927 9972
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 124699 17884 206 1345 788 22 0 0
OW 39 858 53 440 579 62 0 0
VODI 20 204 48 361 1010 268 0 0
ODI 0 46 13 178 579 662 19 0
CDI 0 1 2 38 416 1039 249 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 338 4718 19883 9972

Date: 2020-10-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123210 18706 173 725 230 6 0 0
OW 12 559 94 711 247 30 0 0
VODI 29 63 26 712 1039 67 0 0
ODI 0 2 4 64 1756 366 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 437 2296 75 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 109 3581 17581 14133
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123200 18552 199 1160 901 95 0 0
OW 30 619 57 548 618 125 0 0
VODI 21 129 30 311 997 466 9 0
ODI 0 28 7 152 545 685 37 0
CDI 0 2 4 43 421 889 224 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 336 4086 17386 14133

Date: 2020-10-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121213 19773 182 689 285 1 0 0
OW 8 894 92 655 290 35 0 0
VODI 30 108 33 777 905 94 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 156 1302 400 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 693 1686 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 100 4347 15270 17001
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121155 19996 204 1063 722 47 0 0
OW 66 625 66 584 617 89 0 0
VODI 14 136 33 405 1018 420 0 0
ODI 16 19 5 181 561 699 2 0
CDI 0 0 1 66 429 1086 59 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 228 4222 15212 17001

Date: 2020-10-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119791 19846 166 759 220 0 0 0
OW 11 1452 115 812 391 33 0 0
VODI 0 179 49 758 885 183 0 0
ODI 0 14 3 124 1201 397 35 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 781 1426 121 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 299 5990 14283 16703
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119707 20413 207 1165 397 6 0 0
OW 93 909 82 669 772 53 0 0
VODI 2 138 37 390 948 567 81 0
ODI 0 19 4 159 535 732 64 0
CDI 0 10 3 70 556 919 161 0
VCDI 0 2 0 21 569 5752 14133 16703


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