Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2020-10-08

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-10-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95532 4558 28 163 49 0 0 0
OW 0 82 11 78 143 1 0 0
VODI 0 16 5 72 226 44 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 27 160 132 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 83 295 9 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 53 961 4603 1766
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-10-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94521 5437 33 156 75 0 0 0
OW 0 102 7 91 116 21 0 0
VODI 0 36 15 99 159 78 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 30 155 113 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 142 233 29 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 31 1226 2971 3216
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-10-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94640 5457 31 140 5 0 0 0
OW 0 67 15 142 72 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 3 137 207 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 21 183 77 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 175 319 23 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 71 1426 4627 1240
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-10-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93812 6125 36 137 39 0 0 0
OW 0 67 20 140 75 13 0 0
VODI 0 22 3 123 172 52 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 30 156 74 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 165 241 82 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 96 994 3326 3077
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93812 6150 36 133 22 0 0 0
OW 0 45 20 159 72 1 0 0
VODI 0 19 2 112 198 44 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 27 149 89 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 173 298 75 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 89 942 3339 3077

Date: 2020-10-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94251 5354 47 241 13 0 0 0
OW 0 59 7 157 107 0 0 0
VODI 0 14 6 66 230 24 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 33 144 126 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 106 161 42 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 55 1159 4597 2090
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94251 5362 46 251 17 0 0 0
OW 0 51 8 152 105 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 5 65 237 18 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 28 139 112 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 110 178 34 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 47 1162 4606 2090

Date: 2020-10-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93491 5632 61 371 58 0 0 0
OW 0 34 6 149 115 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 3 85 248 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 12 294 55 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 100 326 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 1569 4266 2198
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93491 5624 56 419 53 0 0 0
OW 0 33 8 123 177 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 6 48 282 24 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 20 184 71 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 109 190 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 24 1674 4267 2198

Date: 2020-10-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92430 6348 67 486 150 0 0 0
OW 0 36 9 80 169 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 5 41 271 23 0 0
ODI 0 3 0 28 206 82 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 11 140 255 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 34 1409 3188 3602
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92430 6299 61 493 216 0 0 0
OW 0 64 10 65 184 1 0 0
VODI 0 26 7 33 253 55 0 0
ODI 0 9 3 28 139 102 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 25 116 197 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 62 1414 3200 3602

Date: 2020-10-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92491 6162 64 482 109 0 0 0
OW 0 46 6 86 167 0 0 0
VODI 0 18 6 39 262 13 0 0
ODI 0 5 0 29 182 74 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 17 154 164 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 73 1967 3516 2964
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92491 6114 59 453 160 0 0 0
OW 0 81 10 111 161 0 0 0
VODI 0 25 5 35 256 31 0 0
ODI 0 8 2 29 150 85 0 0
CDI 0 4 1 20 139 177 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 81 1925 3516 2964


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