Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2020-10-08

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-10-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19841 5400 44 204 63 0 0 0
OW 3 390 6 83 207 0 0 0
VODI 0 142 26 176 149 91 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 144 198 172 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 421 275 49 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 10 3288 694 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-10-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19298 5518 41 215 49 0 0 0
OW 6 524 25 107 238 5 0 0
VODI 0 58 21 305 183 78 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 67 237 191 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 159 508 14 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 32 2968 1232 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-10-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18642 6058 69 349 101 0 0 0
OW 1 34 13 144 246 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 126 306 67 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 362 169 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 79 630 14 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 2566 2098 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-10-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18385 6018 50 213 59 0 0 0
OW 1 171 30 199 293 17 0 0
VODI 0 16 8 177 199 153 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 18 263 198 21 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 121 414 80 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 2153 2802 12
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18385 5993 55 241 145 0 0 0
OW 1 180 23 131 191 15 0 0
VODI 0 32 10 205 204 121 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 30 245 209 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 128 414 51 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 33 2176 2846 12

Date: 2020-10-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18125 5945 45 153 39 0 0 0
OW 9 253 36 333 265 23 0 0
VODI 0 42 12 92 291 190 8 0
ODI 0 0 0 36 244 139 70 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 102 356 166 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 1020 4073 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18128 5990 55 207 115 0 0 0
OW 6 194 25 224 158 24 0 0
VODI 0 56 13 142 289 163 5 0
ODI 0 0 0 39 239 152 53 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 130 312 127 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 23 1077 4132 0

Date: 2020-10-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17212 6885 83 303 20 0 0 0
OW 3 116 36 288 108 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 173 318 20 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 366 182 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 43 762 40 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1989 3131 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17213 6581 56 290 119 7 0 0
OW 2 345 44 231 130 45 0 0
VODI 0 73 17 179 278 172 0 0
ODI 0 2 3 58 209 217 29 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 99 368 87 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 20 2144 3055 0

Date: 2020-10-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16473 7354 90 343 134 0 0 0
OW 15 128 31 276 198 7 0 0
VODI 0 5 4 119 301 98 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 17 254 175 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 82 485 99 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 15 2169 3195 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16461 6938 64 236 160 32 0 0
OW 27 414 28 211 188 73 2 0
VODI 0 119 22 200 300 194 18 0
ODI 0 14 10 74 166 210 53 0
CDI 0 2 1 34 96 268 151 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 74 2157 3083 0

Date: 2020-10-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17205 6495 58 194 39 0 0 0
OW 14 360 45 290 190 1 0 0
VODI 17 32 11 160 385 49 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 29 292 147 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 127 395 91 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 28 2111 3309 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17131 6117 53 199 94 6 0 0
OW 90 576 27 186 181 33 0 0
VODI 15 171 27 170 413 126 0 0
ODI 0 19 6 82 179 255 25 0
CDI 0 4 1 27 103 261 154 0
VCDI 0 0 0 17 91 2022 3221 0


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