Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2020-10-08

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-10-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16932 6960 81 387 235 5 0 0
OW 0 635 58 328 366 68 0 0
VODI 0 150 30 539 543 236 23 0
ODI 0 3 3 152 879 415 264 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 366 989 1085 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 74 3390 8941 1727
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-10-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16313 7294 68 288 216 16 0 0
OW 0 928 69 482 174 103 6 0
VODI 0 176 35 774 479 119 51 0
ODI 0 0 0 158 972 452 116 0
CDI 0 0 0 30 464 1234 455 8
VCDI 0 0 0 0 34 2372 6319 5661
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-10-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15929 7911 112 494 125 0 0 0
OW 0 390 51 316 275 2 0 0
VODI 0 30 28 735 715 61 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 73 1252 331 19 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 360 1853 176 25
VCDI 0 0 0 0 70 1119 7696 5717
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-10-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15885 7391 86 416 168 0 0 0
OW 0 563 57 359 326 26 0 0
VODI 0 83 34 622 705 150 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 91 981 403 34 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 267 1331 751 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 55 707 6275 8098
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15885 7447 82 410 191 2 0 0
OW 0 475 55 337 287 21 0 0
VODI 0 115 38 617 607 135 0 0
ODI 0 0 4 124 1019 477 41 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 326 1113 767 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 72 869 6252 8098

Date: 2020-10-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15233 7583 79 306 225 34 0 0
OW 0 378 33 236 213 250 4 0
VODI 0 118 35 356 670 372 52 0
ODI 0 5 5 126 638 567 102 0
CDI 0 3 0 3 332 1055 549 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 56 1226 8356 6664
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15233 7699 81 313 301 81 0 0
OW 0 276 30 193 107 172 3 0
VODI 0 106 40 393 658 322 49 0
ODI 0 5 1 124 680 524 89 0
CDI 0 1 0 4 301 1027 379 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 87 1378 8543 6666

Date: 2020-10-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14669 7601 84 387 37 0 0 0
OW 0 181 38 355 129 2 0 0
VODI 0 25 11 309 451 27 0 0
ODI 0 8 1 42 941 191 0 0
CDI 0 7 0 2 251 2349 150 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 29 1427 8774 7388
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14669 7586 88 595 319 38 0 0
OW 0 196 31 186 247 128 0 0
VODI 0 22 14 264 526 367 6 0
ODI 0 11 1 47 477 778 71 0
CDI 0 7 0 3 177 1048 318 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 92 1637 8529 7388

Date: 2020-10-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14112 7012 114 638 236 2 0 0
OW 0 420 28 169 354 54 0 0
VODI 0 98 30 154 378 210 0 0
ODI 0 6 3 139 277 452 52 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 263 971 789 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 85 1097 6445 11261
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14112 6941 103 561 420 10 0 0
OW 0 505 41 259 352 280 27 0
VODI 0 80 22 147 316 454 255 0
ODI 0 10 9 85 217 511 347 0
CDI 0 0 0 53 146 491 790 13
VCDI 0 0 0 12 142 1040 5867 11248

Date: 2020-10-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14009 6622 88 644 163 5 0 0
OW 0 333 29 377 308 29 0 0
VODI 0 246 30 193 419 119 0 0
ODI 0 26 8 121 399 274 5 0
CDI 0 0 1 51 189 774 313 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 246 1384 9704 8754
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14009 6687 101 856 404 37 0 0
OW 0 416 31 275 464 162 0 0
VODI 0 72 11 91 470 528 227 0
ODI 0 38 6 67 90 483 411 0
CDI 0 14 7 47 79 289 760 0
VCDI 0 0 0 53 217 1086 8624 8754


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