Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2020-10-01

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-09-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20889 4542 7 5 0 0 0 0
OW 1 593 28 179 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 255 29 161 157 0 0 0
ODI 0 38 21 149 289 39 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 405 585 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 17 2028 1634 3
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-09-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20080 5154 6 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 856 31 108 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 333 30 217 126 0 0 0
ODI 0 56 24 163 269 23 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 33 493 371 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 1911 1786 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-09-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20313 5489 45 193 0 0 0 0
OW 3 209 30 143 66 0 0 0
VODI 0 24 15 262 235 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 15 567 40 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 202 698 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2229 1304 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-10-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19237 6123 43 194 146 0 0 0
OW 0 325 14 41 193 29 0 0
VODI 0 70 24 204 146 111 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 57 293 169 23 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 321 359 132 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2488 1338 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19237 6267 42 190 176 1 0 0
OW 0 214 27 77 155 16 0 0
VODI 0 37 12 188 176 94 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 41 297 170 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 295 445 153 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2430 1332 0

Date: 2020-10-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19731 5300 43 214 86 0 0 0
OW 5 451 20 95 223 0 0 0
VODI 0 66 26 247 162 93 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 69 253 173 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 156 490 51 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 25 3474 620 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19735 5532 59 254 159 0 0 0
OW 1 238 14 138 131 4 0 0
VODI 0 47 17 196 215 64 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 44 256 195 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 119 539 60 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 25 3428 612 0

Date: 2020-10-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19024 5987 64 230 18 0 0 0
OW 1 40 19 241 122 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 201 318 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 7 480 116 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 142 722 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 2565 1757 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19024 5659 50 254 115 7 0 0
OW 1 288 17 184 205 15 0 0
VODI 0 80 17 233 243 101 3 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 319 172 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 175 474 9 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 30 2641 1753 0

Date: 2020-10-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18609 5961 60 269 83 0 0 0
OW 1 93 21 155 297 14 0 0
VODI 0 4 3 170 178 162 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 300 181 20 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 83 509 73 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 2595 2229 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18601 5300 47 228 292 39 0 0
OW 8 476 15 115 86 150 0 0
VODI 1 242 13 137 141 228 13 0
ODI 0 40 9 120 173 128 62 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 219 339 50 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 36 2577 2197 0

Date: 2020-10-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18080 6146 56 153 70 2 0 0
OW 5 195 33 276 260 43 0 0
VODI 0 31 10 146 250 148 8 0
ODI 0 0 0 30 261 159 37 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 129 365 108 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 1357 3716 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18065 5183 38 154 190 31 0 0
OW 19 756 28 161 191 108 4 0
VODI 1 309 15 146 175 244 54 0
ODI 0 124 18 79 97 130 81 0
CDI 0 0 0 65 254 211 87 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 71 1350 3643 0


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