Description of algorithm Full domain   Ice concntr, edge pos   Contingency tables American sector European sector Asian sector GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-10-01

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-09-25:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 134018 15717 126 542 356 202 46 0 OW 68 1499 125 986 465 115 85 0 VODI 0 310 62 1093 1089 176 61 0 ODI 0 38 25 396 1424 549 82 0 CDI 0 0 0 19 879 2031 541 0 VCDI 0 0 0 0 71 5345 16597 1910	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-09-27:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 132629 16189 123 594 179 3 0 0 OW 88 2197 103 764 476 280 27 0 VODI 0 409 70 753 1235 576 65 0 ODI 0 56 27 309 1295 754 204 0 CDI 0 0 0 36 953 1555 783 0 VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 6938 16261 1105	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-09-29:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 132144 18362 188 691 67 0 0 0 OW 3 565 116 746 368 0 0 0 VODI 0 51 35 1030 1031 99 0 0 ODI 0 0 0 190 1945 540 46 0 CDI 0 0 0 1 694 2389 683 0 VCDI 0 0 0 0 40 7193 16550 1281	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-10-01:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 131638 18020 169 750 255 4 0 0 OW 0 960 83 582 500 67 2 0 VODI 0 183 61 891 972 274 27 0 ODI 0 0 3 283 1420 671 219 0 CDI 0 0 0 4 811 1719 1141 0 VCDI 0 0 0 0 24 7445 15044 2826	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 131638 18392 174 807 311 9 0 0 OW 0 641 89 579 485 56 0 0 VODI 0 130 52 857 999 321 32 0 ODI 0 0 1 263 1425 658 278 0 CDI 0 0 0 4 737 1820 1131 0 VCDI 0 0 0 0 25 7316 14992 2826

Date: 2020-10-03:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 130788 18049 150 735 320 10 0 0 OW 5 1320 95 641 628 98 13 0 VODI 0 236 71 1034 835 278 59 0 ODI 0 4 5 287 1261 766 204 0 CDI 0 0 0 42 613 1729 1014 0 VCDI 0 0 0 0 178 7040 12134 6406	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 130792 18700 187 891 373 27 0 0 OW 1 748 83 683 515 66 8 0 VODI 0 155 48 897 1008 347 60 0 ODI 0 6 3 220 1243 786 244 0 CDI 0 0 0 48 483 1755 1020 0 VCDI 0 0 0 0 213 6940 12092 6406

Date: 2020-10-05:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 129897 19150 188 754 117 0 0 0 OW 6 600 91 701 357 12 0 0 VODI 0 65 35 1185 1125 91 0 0 ODI 0 0 0 90 2121 468 22 0 CDI 0 0 0 0 560 2918 324 31 VCDI 0 0 0 0 50 5783 11488 8819	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 129901 18555 176 873 406 56 0 0 OW 2 1022 76 714 503 134 0 0 VODI 0 232 61 955 1123 395 30 0 ODI 0 6 1 167 1361 713 121 0 CDI 0 0 0 21 783 1844 371 41 VCDI 0 0 0 0 154 6130 11312 8809

Date: 2020-10-07:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 128824 19313 184 910 246 0 0 0 OW 1 667 94 653 642 35 0 0 VODI 0 64 43 962 1066 320 0 0 ODI 0 0 0 123 1525 668 37 0 CDI 0 0 0 10 590 2445 561 6 VCDI 0 0 0 0 130 4902 12871 9156	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 128787 17927 163 817 640 113 0 0 OW 37 1573 77 621 408 289 0 0 VODI 1 495 65 902 1130 565 15 0 ODI 0 49 16 297 1111 715 198 0 CDI 0 0 0 21 688 1653 560 47 VCDI 0 0 0 0 222 5035 12696 9115

Date: 2020-10-09:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 127750 19392 160 662 314 2 0 0 OW 5 678 90 828 666 122 0 0 VODI 0 177 52 799 1015 499 17 0 ODI 0 6 4 202 1165 759 100 0 CDI 0 0 0 12 536 1705 823 0 VCDI 0 0 0 1 163 3541 15278 9525	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 127734 17677 133 628 404 212 8 0 OW 20 1774 83 674 623 226 42 0 VODI 1 638 61 826 1185 713 151 0 ODI 0 162 29 257 804 899 263 0 CDI 0 2 0 117 493 1040 1074 52 VCDI 0 0 0 2 350 3538 14680 9473

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